The Players Championship Picks and Betting Preview
The first massive event on the PGA Tour's schedule is finally here; The Players Championship. Many people joke or debate about what the "fifth" major tournament is, but The Players is objectively the correct answer.
With a $20 million dollar purse up for grabs, the top players in the world will descend on TPC Sawgrass this week.
Let's start off by looking at the top 10 odds to win the event, via WynnBET, and then dive into some handicapping tips and finally, my top three picks to win.
Odds to Win The Players Championship
- Jon Rahm +1200
- Collin Morikawa +1400
- Justin Thomas +1400
- Rory McIlroy +1400
- Viktor Hovland +2000
- Patrick Cantlay +2200
- Scottie Scheffler +2500
- Xander Schauffele +2500
- Hideki Matsuyama +3000
- Dustin Johnson +3000
How to Handicap TPC Sawgrass
The number one thing to keep in mind when choosing who to bet on this week, is that TPC Sawgrass has some of the best placed hazards on the Tour's schedule. Driving accuracy is of utmost importance to not only keep the ball out of hazards, but to set golfers up for a favorable second shot where they can attack the pin.
Outside of driving accuracy, it can be a tough course to handicap as year-after-year there are several different styles of golfer that has found success at this course. Looking at recent form, and overall strokes gained statistics, is what I recommend the most this week.
Finally, don't rely too heavily on course history. The Player Championship was historically played in May, but was moved to March in 2019. The two month difference may not seem like a lot, but it means the world when it comes to how the grass performs on a golf course.
5 Key Stats for The Players Championship
- Driving Accuracy
- Birdie Average
- Strokes Gained: Approach the Green
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
Picks to Win The Players Championship
Collin Morikawa +1400
I've yet to win money on a Collin Morikawa victory, and I refuse to let that happen again. Despite not winning on the PGA Tour yet this season, he's been putting up even better numbers than he did last year. He leads the entire Tour in strokes gained: total, and he ranks in the top 10 in almost every single category. Let's go ahead and list some of them.
- Strokes gained: off-the-tee - 1st
- Driving accuracy - 12th
- Strokes gained: approach the green - 4th
- Strokes gained: putting - 4th
- Strokes gained: tee-to-green - 6th
- Birdie average - 5th
- Scoring average - 1st
Those are some eye-popping numbers. I think he's going to get his first win of the season this week at TPC Sawgrass.
Hideki Matsuyama +3000
Hideki Matsuyama was my latest outright winner this year, at the Sony Open, and I'm going back to the well on the Japanese golfer. He's one of only two people who already has two wins this PGA Tour season, and he's always done well at TPC Sawgrass. He's third in the field in average strokes gained per round at the course at +2.18. Even since the switch to March, he finished eighth in 2019 and then tied a course record in the first round in 2020 before the event was infamously cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Matsuyama ranks 11th in strokes gained: tee-to-green this season, and he's yet to miss a cut all season. His price of 30/1 this week is downright disrespectful.
Matt Fitzpatrick +4000
I'm back on Matt Fitzpatrick for the second-straight week, but for good reason. With the kind of numbers he's been putting up, it's not a matter of if he's going to win this year, it's a matter of when.
He ranks second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total this season, but yet he's listed at 40/1? That makes no sense. He's also 17th in strokes gained: approach, fourth in strokes gained: putting, and he's a fairly accurate driver as well, ranking 65th in that category. He also finished ninth here last season, so he's already had success at TPC Sawgrass in March.
Take a look at Iain's detailed 2022 betting record here.