Some of the toughest weeks of the NFL season to bet on are the final two. With so much on the line for some teams but absolutely nothing on the line for others, it can be tough to figure out which teams are worth betting on.
I'm here to help you out.
I'm going to break down three spread bets that you should absolutely consider betting on for Week 17 action.
If you want to hop in on the action, you should place your bets at Caesars Sportsbook. For a limited time, if you use the link below to sign up for an account, Caesars will cover your first bet up to $1,000!
Best Picks Against the Spread for NFL Week 17
- Panthers +6 vs. Jaguars
- 49ers -13.5 vs. Commanders
- Chargers +3.5 vs. Broncos
Panthers vs. Jaguars prediction and pick
It's about time we have a discussion as a society about the Jacksonville Jaguars. Are they the most fraudulent playoff team? The NFC South is supposed to be the worst division in football but their leader, the Buccaneers, just trounced them in Week 16. Not only are the Jaguars a bad team as a whole, but Trevor Lawrence is failing to live up to expectations.
In this spot, I'll take the seven points with the Panthers on the road. Their offense, which was abysmal all season, has shown signs of life recently and had a solid performance against the Packers despite eventually falling to them by a three-point deficit.
Their defense has turned into a solid unit as well, now ranking 10th in the NFL in opponent yards per play, allowing just 5.0 yards per snap.
We also need to note the Jaguars may just be the worst home team in the NFL. Their Net Yards per Play at home is -1.2, the worst home mark in the league. Are they the better team? Yes. Are they a full touchdown better? I don't think so.
I'll take the points with Carolina.
49ers vs. Commanders prediction and pick
I don't care what the point spread is. There's no way you could convince me to bet on the Washington Commanders here. The 49ers are, in theory, going to be able score at will in this game. The Commanders defense ranks 30th in opponent yards per play and 31st in opponent EPA. Meanwhile, the 49ers rank first in just about every single offensive metric.
The Commanders offense, which could be relied on to a certain extent early in the season, has fallen off in the final third of the season. They have questions at quarterback and haven't found success through the air.
I don't care what the spread it, I'll lay the points with the 49ers.
Chargers vs. Broncos prediction and pick
I have no interest in laying points with the Broncos even with them playing Easton Stick and the imploding Chargers on their home field. Not only are they not as good as their record, ranking 31st in Net Yards per Play at -0.9, but they don't play a style of play that lends itself to winning with margin.
Instead, I'll back the Chargers who already looked much better in their first game without Brandon Staley, taking the Buffalo Bills down to the wire. Let's also give Easton Stick some credit, he has looked solid this season with a quarterback rating of 94.4.
Give me the points with Los Angeles.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!