The Tour Championship Power Rankings: Top 5 Golfers to Bet on at East Lake Golf Club
By Todd Moser
Last week: Ryder Cup Captain Keegan Bradley pulled off an upset win at the BMW Championship which I certainly did not see coming.
This week, the golf season ends at the Tour Championship at East Lake. The course has undergone a major revision to restore it to more closely resemble the classic design from the original course architect Donald Ross.
Odds in this article are via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Tour Championship at East Lake Top Five Power Rankings
It’s hard to handicap this event with the staggered scoring system and previous results being blurred by original starting scores. It’s hard to make up ground when you start five or more strokes behind, but just last year Rory McIlroy proved it can be done. With Hideki Matsuyama’s back injury being a question mark, I really think the race will come down to the best three golfers of the 2024 season.
It’s been a fun and productive year. Let’s go out with a winner. Here’s this week’s countdown with starting score in parenthesis.
5. Ludwig Aberg (-5) +2000
The young phenom is coming off a T-2 last week and seems to always be in contention. He starts five behind Scottie Scheffler and will need four good rounds if he’s going to catch him. He has no prior course experience so maybe the course redesign will help reduce that disadvantage.
4. Hideki Matsuyama (-7) +1100
The big question for Matsuyama is, how healthy is he? If he’s 100% there’s no doubt he can win. His last three events were a third, a first, and a Top Five first round before his WD with a back injury. He has played well at East Lake but not great. This situation is kind of like fantasy football. Do you start or sit your star running back with an ankle injury?
3. Rory McIlroy (-4) +2000
It’s rare, if ever, you see Rory McIlroy’s odds at +2000 to start a tournament. But then again, he starts six strokes behind Scheffler. He proved last year he can more than make up the difference in winning the FedEx Cup a year ago and also won in 2019. He’s not in the greatest of form, but a free-wheeling Rory is dangerous. Plus, it is hard to pass up those odds.
2. Scottie Scheffler (-10) +120
I think the Cup winner and Player of the Year come down to these four rounds between Scottie and Xander. There’s not much separating the two this year and both have played well at East Lake time and again. Having blown his lead last year, I think Scheffler wants this win badly. Perhaps too badly. He’s been seen yelling, throwing clubs into the ground, and outwardly emotional during the playoffs. That emotion may be the thing that holds him back this week.
1. Xander Shauffele (-8) +225
Ultimately, I’m taking a page out of Aesop’s book of fables. Slow and steady wins the race. Schauffele has learned to handle the pressure since his breakthrough PGA win. He validated that with another major at The Open Championship. He simply seems to be cool under fire of which there will be plenty this week. Although there’s not much money to be made with either Scheffler or Schauffele, I’m picking X to win the Cup and Player of the Year.
Longshot Plays at the Tour Championship at East Lake
There’s not much money to be made with the top favorites. Below are four golfers who I think have the ability to go low and catch the leaders if they have their A-games for all four rounds.
Collin Morikawa (-4) +2800
Being six strokes behind, I think it allows the chasers to have a go-for-broke attitude. Morikawa has the talent and ability to come from behind. The question is, what does he do when he catches the leaders? His final round scoring averages ranks 122nd this year.
Patrick Cantlay (-4) +3300
If Cantlay is to get his first win of the year, he’ll need to get off to a flying start. He ranks 11th in first round scoring, but only 142nd in final-round scoring. He’s had three Top 10 finishes at East Lake including a win in 2021. His odds make it worth a gamble.
Sam Burns (-4) +4000
65-65-63-65. Those are Burns’ best rounds in each of his last four tournaments. He can go low but will need to do it for four rounds. He ranks first in total eagles, second in birdie average, and 15th in scoring average. I think the pressure will be too great if he gets near the lead, but his odds are hard to pass up.
Wyndham Clark (-4) +4500
Here’s another guy who has shot some low rounds in his past events. 63-62-65-65-64. I think you’re likely to see one or two more. If he shoots three or four of them, we just may see an upset at +4500.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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