There's Still Time to Buy Low on Nikola Jokic to Win NBA MVP
By Peter Dewey
Nikola Jokic is the league’s reigning MVP, and I’m starting to think that the Denver Nuggets big man has a real chance to repeat as winner of the award this season.
As crazy as it may seem, repeat MVPs aren’t all that uncommon, as Steph Curry and Giannis Antetokounmpo have both done it in the last 10 years.
Jokic and the Nuggets currently hold the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference, but they are doing it without Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray in the lineup. Yet, Jokic has still put up dominant numbers, even in comparison to his 2020-21 campaign, and is now third on the odds list to win the award at WynnBET:
Latest Odds to Win NBA MVP This Season
- Stephen Curry: +160
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: +300
- Nikola Jokic: +800
- Joel Embiid: +1000
- Ja Morant: +1000
- Kevin Durant: +1200
- Luka Doncic: +3000
- LeBron James: +4000
- DeMar DeRozan: +4000
- James Harden: +7500
- Devin Booker: +7500
- Jimmy Butler: +7500
- Chris Paul: +7500
Why There’s a Path for Nikola Jokic to Win MVP
With Kevin Durant going down to a knee injury and essentially losing his chance at winning MVP this season, Jokic now just has to worry about Curry and Antetokounmpo in terms of players that could win their conference and the MVP.
That’s a huge boost, as we saw Jokic come away with last year’s MVP even though the Nuggets were the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference because Joel Embiid missed time to injury.
Jokic, who has appeared in 37 of Denver’s 42 games, has been extremely durable throughout his NBA career and he has the counting numbers to back it up.
Jokic is averaging 25.3 points, 13.9 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game while shooting 56.6 percent from the field and 35.9 percent from beyond the arc. His numbers are very similar to last season, but he is averaging a whopping 3.1 more rebounds per game in the 2021-22 campaign.
Other than the counting numbers, the biggest reason why I think Jokic has a path for MVP is his impact on the floor.
This season, the Nuggets are plus-9.3 points per 100 possessions when Jokic is on the floor.
When he’s off?
Denver is minus-11.7 points per 100 possessions. That means his on/off numbers show that Denver is 21 points better per 100 possessions with Jokic playing versus not playing.
For comparison, here’s how the Golden State Warriors fare with Steph Curry and the Milwaukke Bucks with Giannis Antetokounmpo this season compared to Jokic in denver.
Warriors Per 100 Possessions – Steph Curry
- On the Floor: +13.7
- Off the Floor: -2.7
- Net Rating: +16.4
Bucks Per 100 Possessions – Giannis Antetokounmpo
- On the Floor: +9.0
- Off the Floor: -3.2
- Net Rating: +12.2
Denver Nuggets Per 100 Possessions – Nikola Jokic
- On the Floor: +9.3
- Off the Floor: -11.7
- Net Rating: +21.0
Yeah, Jokic is that valuable.
The Nuggets may not win enough games for the Joker to be in serious consideration, but if they finish with a top four seed in the West, it’s going to be hard to deny his impact on the team. At +800 odds, there isn’t a better value on the board at WynnBET.