This Historical Trend Shows Why These College Basketball Teams Are a Good Bet to Win a National Championship

The NCAA Tournament is always fun. We fill out brackets and some (most) of us bet on the games. We know how it goes: 68 teams enter, one team comes out.

We'll have plenty of content on the games that make up the field, but I'm going to focus on how to predict the champion ahead of the Tournament with a look at some key metrics that have precedence over the past two-plus decades.

If you've read my college basketball work before, you know I reference KenPom in nearly every article. Ken Pomeroy has generated a way to use metrics that are incredibly predictive towards getting the final outcome of the game and the true difference between the 358 college basketball teams. It's incredibly insightful and has revolutionized how we view the game. You can look up more on him if you want and I suggest using his site when handicapping this, but enough gassing up KenPom, let's use his tools to craft a Champion.

I'm going to focus on two of the many metrics that are available, adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency, to help narrow the field of our Champion.

Dating back to 2002, all but two teams have been inside the top 20 on both sides of the ball. Those two teams are the 2014 Connecticut Huskies, led by Shabazz Napier, and the 2021 Baylor Bears.

The Bears were the clear No. 2 team in the country, but the team had a three week COVID pause in February that held down their defensive rating, which they finished 22nd in, so maybe that was an outlier of sorts. It was a weird year and I'm willing to let it slide, especially given the team just missed the cut of our set barriers, 'The Almost Famous' group.

So, as of Wednesday, February 23, who fits the bill of a National Champion? Here are the full metrics and National Championship odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

National Championship Contenders

Again, this is a moving target as there are new data points each game, but with every team heading into the home stretch of regular season, this is where we stand.

Gonzaga, Arizona, Auburn have received a ton of attention and are rightfully in the upper echelon of National Championship contenders. The teams are two way monsters that have NBA talent littered on the roster, they can withstand all sorts of issues throughout March due to their balance on both sides of the ball.

With that being said, Gonzaga pushes above the rest, now entering a tier that only 2015 Kentucky and last year's Bulldogs are in from an efficiency standpoint.

Baylor has been banged up for most of Big 12 play, and have come up short against Big 12 powerhouses like Kansas and Texas Tech (more on them in a bit), but if they can get healthy, they can make another run, they project as a strong two way club with some leftovers from last year's National Championship team.

UCLA is a team I entered the season down on, projecting them closer to the 10th best team than the second, which many pundits put them in after a (fluky) run to the Final Four as an 11 seed. However, the team is quietly emerging as a balanced roster with guard Tyger Campbell leading the offense with sharpshooter Johnny Juzang on the wing.

This will be a theme over the article, but to me there's few things more important in the NCAA Tournament then being pliable and able to win on either side of the floor. These are random games that have a ton of variance, it's best to be as capable on both ends to ensure you can handle an off game from one side of it.

Almost Famous

Again, these numbers are going to change, but these are teams that are inside the top 50 on both sides of the ball. With every passing games, teams can improve their standing, but they still profile as the above teams: well balanced.

For the time being Kentucky, who is battling injuries at the moment, slips out of the top 20 threshold. You can read more about them here, but I'll look at some other candidates, I think Coach Cal's team is closer to the first subset than this one.

Kansas and Villanova are just outside the threshold due to their defensive short comings, but both teams look the part of National Championship contenders. These numbers are moving targets, but as more eyeballs fixate on these high profile teams, keep an eye on the status of their defense and if they are rounding into form.

Illinois and UConn are another pair of teams that may be further down the bracket that profile as clubs that can push inside of the next tier. Both teams are inside the top 30 on each side of the ball and figure to be clustered into the middle of a pretty wide open field for the most part. These two will likely be trendy 'Non 1 seed' picks to make the Final Four due to their ability to win games on either end.

As for some extreme cases, Texas Tech has the No. 1 defense in the country, but the offense lacks some play making at times. Texas and Tennessee fall into the same category as well, each top 10 on defense but outside the top 30 on offense. There will be games when their defense can carry them, but in the six game sample, the team will need to find sound offense.

*I made a draft of this on Tuesday and Loyola Chicago fit the criteria but after Tuesday's games slipped to 51. I opted to keep them in.

Uneven Teams

These teams expand wide across the Tournament spectrum, from a No. 1 seed to the more common double digit Cinderella's hopefuls.

Let's start at the top with Purdue. I've spoken about the Boilermakers issues and how it makes them vulnerable come tourney time. There are going to be instances, like in their opening game, when they simply overwhelm teams and win by 50. But what about the Sweet 16 (if they get there) when they face a 5 seed like Texas, who is top 10 on defense but are more than capable on the offensive end to challenge the leaky Purdue defense?

These uneven teams are the one's that may win a game or two, but also run into trouble when the schedule beefs up and predictable regression hits them at the worst time. This is why I'm avoiding betting Purdue in the Futures market. Sure, their offense can go nuclear, but if the team has one off night, their defense likely won't hold up with a seasons worth of data.

When looking for positives on this table, I believe the mid majors are a better team to play on as they are typically underseeded and can thrive in a one game format where they are really good at one thing.

Take San Diego State's defense. If the team gets the right draw as a No. 6 seed they may be a very small underdog due to their ability to shut down the opposing offense.

When looking through the microscope of a one game sample, teams that excel at one thing are a really good bet to thrive to come through based on their successful season. I'll certainly be looking to back the North Texas and the Mountain West clubs in Rounds 1 and 2, but they will likely bow out along the way as their deficient side is exposed.

There's a difference when looking at Purdue, who is seen as a top three choice to cut down the nets despite being deplorable on one side of the court, and a North Texas team that may be a small underdog against a team in the first round.

I'll update these numbers, and it'll be nice to have the prior entries to see who is trending up and down and potentially entering new tiers, but this is our starting point ahead of Selection Sunday when hunting for value in the NCAA Tournament outright market.

Bracket Matrix was used to compile the projected seeds as of Tuesday evening, KenPom was used for adjusted offensive and defensive metrics as of Wednesday morning

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 67-64-3 for -0.44 units.