This Tom Brady Primetime ATS Trend Says To Fade Tampa Bay Against Baltimore

When we think about Tom Brady, we think about a quarterback who rises to the occasion when the bright lights are on and when everyone’s watching. However, recently that’s been more myth than fact. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3-4, have lost two straight games and are 2-point favorites over the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football. Before you rush to back Brady in this bounce back spot, consider this stat. 

Since Brady has gotten to Tampa Bay, he is 2-10 ATS in primetime games. That’s right. Betting on Tom Brady in primetime games has lost people money – and tonight may be another losing effort. 

The Buccaneers have one of the worst offenses in the league. They are 26th in points per game, yards per play and in 3rd down conversion percentage. They are also 29th in touchdowns scored per game and dead last in yards per carry. 

Tampa Bay has moved to a favorite in this game, which may be a reason for bettors to look the other way.

"In what has been perhaps the strangest year of Tom Brady's career, we are seeing some strange line movement for his upcoming TNF matchup. Tampa Bay originally opened as 3-point favorites, but by Monday afternoon, the line flipped in the Ravens direction. Since then, we have seen steady action come back on the Bucs, pushing us to to move the line back the other way. Given all the instability throughout the week, it will be interesting to see where this line closes."

Before the season started, Tampa Bay suffered a myriad of injuries to the offensive line, which is a big reason why it can’t run the ball successfully. However, the Bucs’ passing offense has fallen into mediocrity as well. They are 21st in yards per pass – making them one of the less efficient passing offenses in the league. 

Tampa Bay has been able to be in games because its defense is great (5th in opponent points per game), but the offense hasn’t given us a reason to believe in them. 

Even at 2-point favorites, the Buccaneers aren’t a lock tonight just because they have Tom Brady. Based on recent history and this year’s numbers, they may even be at a disadvantage. 

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.