Thunder vs. Heat Prediction and Odds (Thunder Cover in Low-Scoring Contest)

Tyler Herro of the Heat
Tyler Herro of the Heat / Michael Reaves/GettyImages

Fresh off a 105-98 victory over the Pistons, the 46-24 Miami Heat host the 20-49 Oklahoma City Thunder tonight at 8:00 p.m. EST.

Miami has covered the spread in six of their last nine while the Thunder have lost seven straight. They've been a strong spread bet all season though, going 40-25-4 for the second-best record in the NBA.

Oklahoma City is looking for revenge after a 103-90 loss to the Heat back in November - can they cover a massive number on the road or will Miami earn a dominating victory? Perhaps the total is where we should look for value?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET to find out:

Thunder vs Miami Odds, Spread and Total


  • Thunder +16 (-110)
  • Heat -16 (-110)


  • Thunder: +950
  • Heat: -1800


  • 218 (Over -110/Under -110)

Thunder vs Miami Prediction and Pick

The Thunder have been dynamite on the road, going 9-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11. Miami has struggled to cover double-digit spreads all season as they rely on a slow, grinding style that makes it impossible to score but also results in closer games.

But whew, Oklahoma City is hard to trust right now. They have the second-worst net rating in the league over the last 15 games with the third-worst offense. Miami, on the other hand, has the second-best defensive rating in that time span and is once again the suffocating unit we've come to know them as.

I think the Heat are going to cruise in this one and that leaves the door open for a backdoor cover. They've failed to cover in two straight as a home favorite and think they'll take it a bit easy tonight, so give me the Thunder. But I also love the value on the total.

The under is 5-2 in the Heat's last seven games and I just don't see how the Thunder score enough to get this total over. Only 193 points were scored in the first matchup between these teams and I think we see more of the same here.

Pick: Thunder +16.5 (-110) and Under 218 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.