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Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 3

By Reed Wallach

May 9, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2)
May 9, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) / Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
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The Mavericks evened the series in Oklahoma City against the Thunder in the second round of the NBA Playoffs, setting up an intriguing Game 3 in Dallas on Saturday afternoon. 

Luka Doncic looked healthier in Game 2 despite battling leg injuries, but it was the role players of Dallas that helped buoy the team in its road victory, including P.J. Washington, who made seven three-point shots and scored 29 points to pull the sizable upset. 

Now, the series flips to Dallas, can the Mavericks seize control of the series, or will the Thunder get back on track and take back home court advantage. 

Thunder vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • Thunder +2.5 (-110)
  • Mavericks -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

  • Nuggets: +116
  • Timberwolves: -136

Total: 217.5 (Over -110/Uner -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Thunder vs. Mavericks How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, May 11th 
  • Game Time: 3:30 PM EST
  • Venue: American Airlines Center
  • How to Watch (TV): ABC
  • Series Score: Tied 1-1

Thunder vs. Mavericks Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

  • N/A

Mavericks Team Injury Report

  • Olivier Maxence-Prosper - ankle - OUT
  • Maxi Kleber - shoulder - OUT

Mavericks vs. Thunder Key Players to Watch

Oklahoma City Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Gilgeous-Alexander has been up to the task through three games, including Game 2 in the losing effort, pouring in 33 points with 12 rebounds and eight assists. Dallas hasn’t been able to slow down SGA whatsoever, can he pace the team to victory?

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic: Doncic was far better in Game 2 than Game 1, including breaking out of a three-point shooting slump, including making five of his eight shots from distance. Did he turn a corner? If Doncic is fit to play at a high level, this series picks up a ton of intrigue, but there were plenty of clips of him limping and grimacing during the game. The Thunder have plenty of wing defenders to bother Doncic, can he keep it up? 

Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction and Pick

The Mavericks had a monster shooting night on Thursday night, making 18-of-37 threes (48.6%) en route to the win. However, it wasn’t just Doncic who paced the Mavs’ offense, it was everybody on the team. Washington, a 32% three-point shooter in the regular season, shot 63% from distance, and Josh Green, a low volume 38% three-point shooter, shot 60% from deep. 

I don’t see that keeping up for the Mavericks, even with the series shifting to Dallas. However, the team can get more offensive output from the likes of Kyrie Irving en route to a win. 

What I do think is repeatable is the Thunder offense getting great looks and putting up points. OKC hasn’t shot that great this series, about four percent lower effective field goal percentage compared to the regular season, but still getting to 110 in each game. 

I believe the best is yet to come from this OKC offense, and the team can continue to put up points in bunches, even on the road. The team has levers to pull to clean up its rotation, further reducing Josh Giddey’s minutes and spacing the floor for driving lanes and more shooting for the best three-point shooting team in the regular season. 

I’ll stay off picking a side and stick with OKC’s offense to keep on rolling. 

PICK: Thunder Team Total OVER 108.5 (-102)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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