Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 4

NBA betting prediction for Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinals between Oklahoma City and Dallas.
May 11, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) shoots against the Dallas Mavericks in Game 3.
May 11, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) shoots against the Dallas Mavericks in Game 3. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
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After a solid defensive performance and a stellar night on the boards, the Dallas Mavericks are one victory away from taking a commanding 3-1 series lead over the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals. 

Can Dallas get the job done for the third consecutive game after dropping the series opener? 

The two squads are back at American Airlines Center Monday night for Game 4. Desperate for a bounce-back win, can the Thunder even things up as a one-point underdog? 

Here’s the betting preview for the matchup with a best bet. 

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Thunder vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread and Total 

Spread

  • Thunder: +1 (-108)
  • Mavericks: -1 (-112)

Moneyline

  • Thunder: +102
  • Mavericks: -120

Total: 215 (Over -108/Under -112)

Thunder vs. Mavericks How to Watch

  • Date: Monday, May 13 
  • Game time: 9:30 p.m. EST
  • Venue: American Airlines Center
  • How to Watch (TV): TNT
  • Series Score: Mavericks Lead 2-1

Thunder vs. Mavericks Injury Report

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • No injuries to report

Dallas Mavericks

  • Luka Doncic (knee/ankle): questionable
  • Maxi Kleber (shoulder): out 

Thunder vs. Mavericks Key Players to Watch

Oklahoma City Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Oklahoma City needs its top player at his best to make a deep playoff run. Gilgeous-Alexander shot 53.5% from the field during the regular season but has struggled with efficiency in the playoffs thus far, connecting at just a 47.3% clip. Gilgeous-Alexander has been able to balance out some off nights shooting the rock by getting to the free-throw line, where he is 26-of-29 for the series. 

Dallas Mavericks

Dereck Lively II: In the playoffs, teams need production off the bench and Lively delivered that in Game 3 with 12 points (8-of-12 at the free-throw line), 8 rebounds and a team-high +16 plus/minus. Dallas is now 4-0 in the playoffs when Lively scores in double figures and his 27 minutes in Game 3 were his highest since playing 41 in a win over Orlando Jan. 29. 

Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction and Pick 

Dallas was able to come away with a 105-101 home victory in Game 3 on the back of P.J. Washington’s big night (27 points on 11-of-23 shooting, five 3-pointers) and a great performance on the boards.

Oklahoma City shot 46.9% from the field and held Dallas to just 42.9%, but the Mavericks won the rebounding battle 48-41 and were able to turn 15 offensive rebounds into 16 second-chance points. 

Oklahoma City’s defense was No. 4 in the NBA during the regular season but ranked 29th in the NBA in allowing offensive rebounds. However, Dallas was a sub-par offensive rebounding team (No. 22) throughout the season and Oklahoma City’s defense should be better near the rim. 

The Thunder were No. 7 during the regular season in points in the paint allowed and should see a bounce-back performance after giving up 52 paint points in Game 3. 

When it needs it most, Oklahoma City’s defense sets the tone Monday night and puts an emphasis on slowing down the Mavericks both in the paint and from the perimeter. The Mavericks’ supporting cast to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have come up big in this series with Washington, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Josh Green combining for 20 three-pointers over the last two games. Oklahoma City puts a stop to that to even up the series. 

Pick: Thunder +1


Game odds update periodically and are subject to change