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Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 6

By Reed Wallach

May 15, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Dallas Mavericks center Daniel Gafford (21) defends a
May 15, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Dallas Mavericks center Daniel Gafford (21) defends a / Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
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The Mavericks bounced back after squandering a double digit second half lead to win in Oklahoma City in Game 6, setting up a closeout game on its home floor.

Luka Doncic looked as healthy as he has been all series in Wednesday’s 104-92 win against the Thunder, and will look to put together another strong effort en route to sending the Mavericks to the team’s second Western Conference Finals in three seasons. 

Can the Thunder extend the series and force a Game 7 in OKC on Monday? 

Here’s our betting preview for Game 6 on Saturday night.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Thunder vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread and Total

Spread: 

  • Thunder: +4 (-108)
  • Mavericks: -4 (-112

Moneyline:

  • Thunder: +152
  • Mavericks: -180

Total: 209 (Over -110/Under -110)

Thunder vs. Mavericks How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, May 18th
  • Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
  • Venue: American Airlines Center
  • How to Watch (TV): ABC
  • Series Score: Mavericks Lead 3-2

Thunder vs. Mavericks Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

N/A

Mavericks Team Injury Report

  • Luka Doncic - ankle, knee - probable

Thunder vs. Mavericks Key Players to Watch

Oklahoma City Thunder 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: The runner-up for league MVP has played to the billing in this series, averaging north of 31 points with nine rebounds and seven assists while shooting nearly 50% from the floor on 41% shooting from beyond the arc. However, the rest of the team hasn’t been able to convert on offense, can SGA find ways to solve this Dallas defense?

Dallas Mavericks 

Luka Doncic: Doncic played arguably his best game of the series in Game 5, pouring in 31 points with 10 rebounds and 11 assists, including five three-point makes. The Mavericks star guard has been hobbled by injuries, but has been able to lean on the likes of P.J. Washington to help shoulder the load. Is he recovered enough to close this series out at home?

Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction and Pick

My preferred bet in this one is the under, which has cashed in three straight games. 

While each team is known for its offense, it's been each team's defenses that have dominated this series in one that has been played in the halfcourt for the most part. The pace of 93.83 would be among the slowest in the NBA in the regular season, and both teams are shooting below its season long marks. 

Dallas has an effective field goal percentage of 52.4%, which would rank 28th in the league in the regular season. The Mavericks, though up 3-2, have relied on its defense far more than its offense in this series, evident in the Thunder’s ghastly 47.5% eFG%, which would be far and away the lowest in the NBA. 

Oklahoma City has been stymied at the rim by the likes of Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II, and the team hasn’t been able to cash in from the perimeter. 

This series has been determined by the Mavericks’ role players cashing in on open looks while the Thunder have not been able to match that. 

Overall, I believe both teams continue to play below expectations and the market isn’t able to catch up to this falling total. 

I’ll go under again in Game 6. 

PICK: UNDER 209

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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