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Tigers vs. Astros Prediction and Odds for Saturday, May 7 (Back the Under in Rodriguez-Valdez Matchup)

By Ben Heisler

Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez looks to bounce back after a hard luck loss in his last outing vs. the Toronto Blue Jays.
Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez looks to bounce back after a hard luck loss in his last outing vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. / The Republic-USA TODAY NETWORK
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A pair of well-known left-handers battle Saturday afternoon from Minute Maid Park in Houston when the Houston Astros host the Detroit Tigers in Game 2 of their series at 4:05 pm ET.

Framber Valdez gets the ball for the Astros; looking to improve on his 3.42 ERA this season, despite the lowest strikeout rate of his career so far in 2022.

He's opposed by Eduardo Rodriguez, looking for his first win of the season through five starts.

Here are the odds for today's matinee from "The Juice Box" over at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Tigers vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Tigers +1.5 (-130)
  • Astros -1.5 (+110)

Moneyline:

  • Tigers (+170)
  • Astros (-185)

Total:

  • 8 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Tigers vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Both of these starting pitchers have underperformed to expectations this season, but there's reason for optimism that both can turn it around this afternoon.

Rodriguez has a WAR of -0.7 through his first five games, but despite his 5.33 ERA, he has a fielder independent pitching (FIP) of 3.75. His ground ball rate is up over 34%, so there have been several balls that have gotten through the infield despite him making a good pitch. He also found his control; now allowing a walk in 5.2 innings on the road vs. the L.A. Dodgers in his last start.

As for Valdez, the normally overwhelming stuff just hasn't been there so far this year. After striking out six in his opening day start, he's only struck out 13 batters over his last four starts. His career strikeouts/nine innings is up near 8.5, but in 2022 it's two points lower (6.5).

The Astros are starting to get their offense going again, but both teams rank in the bottom 12 in baseball for runs scored. Between both starting pitchers set to positively move towards the mean, as well as the inconsistencies of the offense, I'll go under for this AL matchup Saturday afternoon.

LEAN: Under 8 (-110)

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