Tigers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Odds for Friday, June 24 (Look to Under With Two Poor Offenses)
By Josh Yourish
Detroit travels to the desert for a interleague weekend series with Arizona. Game 1 Friday night features a pitching matchup of Merrill Kelly for the Diamondbacks facing Rony Garcia for Detroit.
Garcia is 2-2 and making his fifth start of the year. He has eight appearances out of the bullpen. On the other side, Kelly comes in with a 6-4 record and a 3.46 ERA.
Both teams are coming off of sweeps and are looking to avoid losing their fourth straight game.
Odds are available at WynnBET Sportsbook
Tigers vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line
- Tigers: +1.5 (-145)
- Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+120)
Moneyline
- Tigers: +145
- Diamondbacks: -155
Total
- 8 (Over -115 / Under -105)
Tigers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick
The Tigers have one of the worst offenses in the majors. As a team they have a .609 OPS, second worst in the MLB, and they have hit 11 less home runs than the Oakland A’s, the second to last team in the league.
Over the last ten games for Detroit the offense has come around a bit, with a .266 batting average compared to their .226 for the season. The only problem is the pitching has finally given in. Over that stretch the Tigers have a 6.21 ERA and they have gone 2-8.
The Tigers are 10-2 when they score five or more runs. First of all, it is insane that they have only done that 12 times all year, but also Merrill Kelly has only allowed five or more runs twice all season. That comes over 14 starts in which Kelly has a 3.46 ERA and a 3.26 fielding independent pitching (FIP).
Rony Garcia has not had the same success on the mound as Kelly has this year. Garcia has an ERA hovering right around five but does have 9.7 K/9 and a FIP of 4.42 which can be a decent indicator of future success.
It feels like the Diamondbacks are a rightful favorite, but -157 does not provide enough value for me to bet it tonight. Instead I’m going to ride the under in what will be a low-scoring close game.
Pick: Under 8 (-105)
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