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Tigers vs. Giants Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, June 29 (Dreadful Pitching Matchup Gives Over Value)

By Joe Summers

Rony Garcia has been among the league's worst pitchers as the Tigers face the Giants this afternoon
Rony Garcia has been among the league's worst pitchers as the Tigers face the Giants this afternoon / Norm Hall/GettyImages
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The San Francisco Giants host the Detroit Tigers in the final game of a three-game series this afternoon at 3:45 p.m. EST.

Alex Wood takes the mound for the Giants after a disastrous outing against Atlanta in which he allowed six runs in just one inning. On the season, he's 5-6 with a 5.05 ERA.

Detroit counters with Rony Garcia making his seventh start. He has a 4.43 ERA in June but held three of his last four opponents to three runs or fewer.

Can the Giants pick up the home win behind a bounce-back performance from Wood or will the Tigers steal one on the road?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to find the value in this Tigers vs Giants series finale:

Tigers vs Giants Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Tigers +1.5 (-125)
  • Giants -1.5 (+105)

Moneyline:

  • Tigers: +180
  • Giants: -200

Total:

  • 7.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Tigers vs Giants Prediction and Pick

Look, I don't care if it's me and Peter Dewey out there batting; there's no way on Earth that a game between Rony Garcia and Alex Wood should have a total of 7.5.

The over is 4-1 in Garcia's last five starts as he's been one of the worst starters in MLB. His 6.92 expected ERA would easily be the worst in the league if he had enough innings to qualify, and his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile is one not even a mother could love:

San Francisco has the seventh-highest OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks and the Giants' high-contact approach should pay dividends against the overmatched Garcia.

Alex Wood has been better, but not much better. He has an expected ERA over 4.00 and gave up four runs in five innings to the lowly Pirates before his debacle against Atlanta. He's been the Giants' worst rotation arm and the over is 7-3-1 in his last 11 outings as a result.

With two dreadful pitchers, lackluster bullpens and uninspiring defenses, I'd expect this total to be around 8.5. To get 7.5 is a gift, and I'm sprinting to the counter at WynnBET to lock my over bet in.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-105)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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