Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction and Odds for Saturday, July 16 (How to Back Cleveland)

Another day, another heartbreaking Tigers loss.

The Tigers struggles continues on Friday, losing 6-5 to the Guardians on the road. Now, they send out veteran righty Michael Pineda to try and get their first win of the series after a pair of losses. Cleveland will counter with Cal Quantrill, a stalwart of their rotation as the team looks to hang onto Wild Card contention.

Here are the odds for this Saturday afternoon meeting from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Total

Run Line:

• Tigers: +1.5 (-145)
• Guardians: -1.5 (+120)

Moneyline:

• Tigers: +152
• Guardians: -165

Total:

• 8.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

The Guardians currently sit two games out of the AL Wild Card at 45-44 and would love to continue to play towards a sweep of the Tigers, but I can't lay this price on the struggling Guardians offense.

Quantrill has been a play on pitcher for me as an underdog, stringing together quality starts often (averages 5.8 innings per start), but I don't like playing him as a prohibitive favorite.

With that being said, I expect him to keep up his fine work against the Tigers, who are bottom 10 in on-base percentage and wRC+ over the last two weeks.

The real value lies on the Cleveland team total over, not the priced out moneyline. Michael Pineda has posted decent marks this season but there is a ton of regression on the way for the righty. He has a 3.58 ERA, but a FIP of 5.34. Meanwhile, he runs into a buzzsaw of a Cleveland offense that is top 10 in wRC+ this month and led by one of the best hitters in the game, Jose Ramirez. He leads the big leagues in RBI's with 70 and has an OBP of .367.

The Tigers are helpless, but I see more value in backing the Cleveland offense rather than laying this price.

PICK: Guardians Team Total OVER 4.5 (-110)

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