It’s a four-game set in the AL Central to take us into the All-Star break in Cleveland.
The Guardians host the Detroit Tigers as Cleveland remains 4.5 back of Minnesota in the division at 43-44. The Tigers are all but buried as the first half of the year comes to a close, 11.5 games behind first at 37-52.
Tonight, Triston McKenzie (6-6) goes for Cleveland, making his 16th start of the season with a 3.47 ERA. Elvin Rodriguez (0-2) gets the nod for the Tigers, the fifth time he takes the ball this year and it has not gone to plan in the previous four; lugging an 11.51 ERA into this matchup.
You can find odds for this AL Central series at WynnBET Sportsbook.
Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total
- Tigers +1.5 (+105)
- Guardians -1.5 (-125)
- Tigers +205
- Guardians -225
- 8.5 (Over +100 / Under -120)
Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
We know that José Ramirez can hit pretty much every pitch. He ranks in the 99th percentile of whiff rate and strikeout rate in the majors via MLB Statcast data, but he truly dominates against fastballs.
Ramirez has a .648 slugging percentage against heaters, a .430 weighted on base average, 13 of his 17 home runs, and only a 9% whiff rate. This means you should get your José Ramirez jerseys, your glove, and head out to the outfield with Elvin Rodriguez on the mound.
Rodriguez is predominantly a fastball pitcher, throwing the pitch 51.4% of the time. He might want to find a new strategy because that fastball is giving up a .727 slugging percentage, five home runs in just 20.1 innings pitched, a .488 WOBA and an abysmal 9.9% whiff rate.
That fastball is the main reason Rodriguez has struggled so much in the first four starts of his career. Besides the massive 11.51 ERA, he also averages 4 walks per nine innings, and 4 home runs per nine innings.
The Guardians have fallen under .500 but should be able to pull to even 44-44 after today, and four of the five games Elvin Rodriguez has appeared in have gone over 8.5 runs.
Pick: Guardians -1.5 (-125) and/or Over 8.5 (+100)
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