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Tigers vs. Royals Game 1 Prediction and Odds for Monday, July 11 (Fade Detroit with Michael Pineda on the Mound)

By Matt De Saro

Detroit Tigers v Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers v Minnesota Twins / David Berding/GettyImages
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Boy oh boy do we have an ugly doubleheader on the schedule today between two of the worst teams in baseball. While it’s true the Detroit Tigers are on a mini-hot streak right now, they are still an awful team that will regress in due time. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Royals have experienced no hot streaks all year. These two disasters have played six times already this year and split those games right down the middle. Here are the odds for this series opener from consensus sportsbooks.  

Tigers vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Tigers: +1.5 (-175)
  • Royals: -1.5 (+150)

Moneyline:

  • Tigers: +115
  • Royals: -135

Total:

  • Total 9 (Over -115/Under -105)

Tigers vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

There was a time, a time before a certain pine tar incident, where I would have bet the Tigers all day long if Michael Pineda was pitching. But, just like fresh snow, the careers of starting pitchers are fleeting. A guy can go from a breakout superstar to the third starter for the Detroit Tigers in short order.

Pineda does have a solid 3.62 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, but he’s made sporadic starts all year and only has 32 ⅓ innings pitched. Since returning from injury on July 1, Pineda has a 4.50 ERA in two starts against the Guardians and Royals. KC knocked Pineda around a bit with two home runs exiting the park in five innings.  One guy to keep an eye on is Hunter Dozier who is hitting .500 against Pineda with two home runs and four hits in eight at-bats.

Brad Keller will face off with Pineda today in what will be his 17th start of the year for Kansas City. Keller has been less than stellar in those starts but has had success against this terrible Tigers lineup. Over two starts spanning 13 innings, Keller has allowed the Tigers just eight hits and two earned runs. He struck out 10, walked three, and gave up one home run. 

This game is a tough call, but my gut is screaming at me to avoid Pineda and the Tigers here. Keller has been very good against this lineup and could be the end of Detroit's tear. 

Pick: Royals -135 ML

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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