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Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Western Conference First Round Series Prediction and Odds

By Reed Wallach

Jan 13, 2022; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Memphis Grizzles guard Ja Morant (12) drives to the basket as
Jan 13, 2022; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Memphis Grizzles guard Ja Morant (12) drives to the basket as / Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
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Following the NBA Play-In Tournament, we have a pair of playoff matchups set.

The Minnesota Timberwolves stormed back to beat the Los Angeles Clippers to grab the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference and set up a matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz are paced by budding star Ja Morant, who looks poised for an All-NBA campaign in his third season, but can the Timberwolves young stars like Karl Anthony-Towns and Anthony Edwards make this series interesting?

Let's check out the early odds from WynnBET Sportsbook for this series and see where the value lies.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies Series Price

  • Minnesota Timberwolves: +275
  • Memphis Grizzlies: -400

The Grizzlies are rightful favorites with home court advantage and one of the most balanced attacks in basketball, but I am concerned about their playoff prospects with their style of play. The team thrives off of both offensive rebounding and running in transition, first in both categories.

With that being said, Minnesota may not be the team to make the Grizz pay. Teams crash the glass more on defense in the postseason and play in the half court at a heightened rate (it's why totals in the postseason drop significantly). However, Minny is 28th in the league in defensive rebounding rate and play at the fastest pace in the NBA.

The T'Wolves may have the most polished offensive threat in the series in Karl-Anthony Towns, but the Grizzlies have been able to find sound offense all season, ranking fourth in offensive rating (mostly because of their ability to convert second chances). If the Timberwolves can't keep Memphis off the glass, they are in for a swift exit.

Chris Finch is a fantastic coach and has some options on defense, but I do believe the Grizz will sniff out the weak links on that side of the ball such as D'Angelo Russell and KAT. While Towns has made strides on that side of the ball, Minny allows nearly 3 points per 100 possessions more this season with him on the floor, 25th percentile per Cleaning the Glass.

The two split the season series (Grizzlies forward Dillon Brooks didn't play in any game), but as the playoffs pick up and the style of play chances, I see Taylor Jenkins and his team finding answers for the T'Wolves.

I wouldn't recommend laying -400, but I do think the Grizz win this one with relative ease, I'd look to take Memphis on the series spread.

LEAN: Grizzlies 4-1 (+250)

You can find all of Reed's NBA postseason bets HERE!

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