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Timberwolves vs. Mavericks NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for Western Conference Finals Game 4

NBA betting preview and pick for Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks.

By Shelby Dermer

May 26, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) dunks the ball over Dallas Mavericks center Daniel Gafford (21) during game three of the western conference finals for the 2024 NBA playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
May 26, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) dunks the ball over Dallas Mavericks center Daniel Gafford (21) during game three of the western conference finals for the 2024 NBA playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
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After going on the road to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals, the Dallas Mavericks defended home court with a 14-3 run in the final minutes to take a 3-0 series advantage and move one win from the franchise’s first NBA Finals appearance in 13 years. 

The Mavericks can finish off the Minnesota Timberwolves Tuesday night in Big D, and are slight favorites (-2) to do so.

Will Dallas punch its ticket to meet the Boston Celtics on the grand stage or will Minnesota snatch a win to return the series north?

Here’s the betting preview with a pick for Game 4 Tuesday night from American Airlines Center. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • Timberwolves: +2 (-110)
  • Mavericks: -2 (-110)

Moneyline

  • Timberwolves: +110
  • Mavericks: -130 

Total: 210.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, May 28
  • Game time: 8:30 p.m. EST
  • Venue: American Airlines Center
  • How to Watch (TV): TNT
  • Series score: Mavericks lead 3-0 

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Injury Report

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Mike Conley (soleus strain): questionable

Dallas Mavericks

  • Luke Doncic (knee sprain/ankle soreness): questionable
  • Maxi Kleber (shoulder): questionable
  • Dereck Lively II (neck sprain): doubtful 

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Players to Watch

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Karl-Anthony Towns: Simply put, Towns has to be better if the Timberwolves want to keep their season alive. The four-time All-Star had a double-double in Game 3, but shot just 5-of-18 from the field and went 0-for-8 from 3-point range. Towns is shooting just 27.8% from the field in the series and 13.6% from downtown. 

Dallas Mavericks

  • Daniel Gafford: Dereck Lively II is doubtful for Game 4 Tuesday with a neck sprain after missing the final two-plus quarters of Game 3 after taking a second-quarter tumble. That gave a bigger role down low to Gafford, who played 29 minutes in Game 3, a playoff high and the most since an April 5 victory over Golden State. Gafford is 15-for-23 from the field in the series thus far. 

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Prediction and Pick

Can you count on Minnesota’s offense finding some success after some abysmal showings from the field? The Timberwolves have sputtered in three winnable games as their fourth-quarter offense has been inefficient and the Mavericks’ stars have stolen the show. 

Minnesota has nothing to lose and has to go down swinging in an elimination game on Tuesday and the injury to Lively down low could help an ailing Timberwolves’ offense in the frontcourt with more matchups against Gafford and reserve Dwight Powell. 

The Mavericks rank fourth in the playoffs in opposing field goal percentage (first of any teams remaining) and have been great on that side of the ball going back to their late-season surge heading into the postseason.

However, water is going to eventually find its level with Minnesota on the offensive end and Tuesday could be that day with the Mavericks playing at less than full strength. 

In the frontcourt, Towns can’t be as bad as he’s been. If he is, it could open the door for Naz Reid to get more run. Reid is shooting 56.3% from the field this series and is averaging 17.3 points per game. 

It seems an afterthought that the Timberwolves have the NBA’s best defense. It went out the window in two home losses to start the series when the Defensive Player of the Year permitted Luka Doncic to hit the game-winning three-pointer in the waning seconds of regulation.

Still, if we’re on the side of regression, the Mavericks are likely to see some negative regression when it comes to their blistering shooting performances. 

Dallas shot 50% from 3-point range in Game 3 and got to the free-throw line 14 more times than the Timberwolves. Doncic and Kyrie Irving were unguardable in their respective 33-point performances, combining to go 22-of-40 from the field.

In a win or go home game, Minnesota’s defense has to show some pride on Tuesday night. With their backs against the wall, roll with the Timberwolves to extend the series as a team that is 5-2 straight up on the road this postseason. 

Pick: Timberwolves +2

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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