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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 5 (Minnesota Answers on the Road)

NBA betting preview and pick for Game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets. 

By Shelby Dermer

May 4, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves center Naz Reid (11) shoots the ball against the Denver Nuggets in the playoffs.
May 4, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves center Naz Reid (11) shoots the ball against the Denver Nuggets in the playoffs. / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
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We have a series. 

The defending NBA-champion Denver Nuggets did not go quietly into the night after losing the first two games of their second-round series at home to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Denver went on the road and won back-to-back games in Minnesota and the series starts from scratch Tuesday night at Ball Arena. 

Denver is a slight favorite in a pivotal Game 5 matchup. Here’s the betting preview for the matchup with a pick. 

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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • Timberwolves: +4.5 (-112)
  • Nuggets: -4.5 (-108)

Moneyline 

  • Timberwolves: +164
  • Nuggets: -196

Total: 206 (Over -110/Under -110)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, May 14 
  • Game time: 10:30 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Ball Arena
  • How to Watch (TV): TNT
  • Series Score: Tied 2-2

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Injury Report 

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • No injuries to report 

Denver Nuggets

  • Jamal Murray (calf strain): questionable 

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Key Players to Watch

Minnesota Timberwolves

Naz Reid: Will Reid get more run down the stretch of this series? The fourth-year, backup center played a series-low 19 minutes in Game 4, but did have 11 points on 5-of-6 shooting and four rebounds. That performance was coming off back-to-back poor shooting displays in Game 2 and 3 (7-of-21 combined). 

Denver Nuggets 

Justin Holiday: Sure, Nikola Jokic was the story of Denver’s Game 4 victory in Minnesota, but Holiday has come out of nowhere to be a contributor off the bench for the defending champs. Holiday knocked down three 3-pointers in Game 4 and has now turned in double-digit points in two of the last three games in this series (29 points overall) after scoring just three total points in 36 minutes in the first round against the Lakers. 

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick 

Unfortunately, Anthony Edwards’ absurd performance in Game 4 was lost as the three-time MVP led Denver to win. Edwards anchored an impressive offensive performance by the Timberwolves, turning in 44 points on 16-of-25 shooting. 

Minnesota shot 47.6% from the floor, nearly 40% from deep and got double-doubles in the frontcourt by Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert. Minnesota also won the rebounding battle 42-31 and gave up just five offensive rebounds. Will they repeat that performance on the road?

Denver did the seemingly impossible in Game 4, shooting a blistering 57% from the field against the league’s top defense. The Nuggets turned in back-to-back stellar shooting performances on the road, and recency bias can inflate this line with the Nuggets holding all of the momentum. 

Minnesota is still the No. 1 defense in effective field goal percentage and against 2-point shots while ranking top-10 against triples. Denver is due for some regression on the offensive side of the ball and Minnesota, after winning the first two games in altitude, won’t be fazed with its back against the walls. Take the underdog Timberwolves. 

Pick: Timberwolves +4.5 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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