Timberwolves vs. Nuggets NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 7

The Timberwolves Nuggets series concludes on Sunday with an epic Game 7 from Denver. 

In a series filled with twists and turns we reach the conclusion of an epic second round series with the Nuggets looking to keep its bid for back-to-back titles against the upstart Timberwolves, who are trying to break through to the Western Conference Finals for the first time in more than 20 years. 

Here’s our full betting preview for Sunday’s Game 7 in Denver with the Nuggets settling as considerable favorites. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Spread: 

• Timberwolves: +5 (-110)
• Nuggets: -5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Timberwolves: +166
• Nuggets: -198

Total: 197.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, May 19th
• Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
• Venue: Ball Arena
• How to Watch (TV):  TNT
• Series Score: Tied 3-3

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Injury Reports

Timberwolves Injury Report

N/A

Nuggets Team Injury Report

N/A

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Key Players to Watch

Minnesota Timberwolves

Mike Conley: As Anthony Edwards noted in his Game 6 post game press conference, the difference between Game 5 and Game 6 was the return of Mike Conley, who missed Game 5 with an Achilles injury. 

Conley’s stats aren't eye-popping, scoring 13 points with four rebounds and five assists, but his ability to be a release valve for Edwards and keep the T’Wolves offense on point is notable. Minnesota’s offense is scoring 122.7 points per 100 possessions when Conley is on the floor this postseason, and it drops off to 110.96 when he sits.

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Conley will be counted on yet again in Game 7. 

Denver Nuggets

Jamal Murray: Murray’s been battling a calf injury for the entire series, and it showed in Game 6, making only four of his 18 field goal attempts. He is averaging only 15 points and four assists while shooting 38% from the field and getting to the free throw line less than two times per game. 

Can Denver unlock Murray similar to how it did in Game 3 and Game 4 to grab a decisive Game 7 win?

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

While we reach a seventh game in this series, only two games have been decided by single digits. 

I expect in this one, as each possession is magnified, we see this game played closer to the vest and its competitive until late. I’m not going to wager on the side, but I’m going to wager on a team total. 

The Timberwolves offense exploded in Game 6, making 15-of-40 three-point attempts and getting to the free throw line 24 times while grabbing 62 rebonds (+19 in the games), but the team has continue to rely on its defense. 

When looking at the point totals in this series, the Timberwolves have won on its defense, averaging only 103.5 points per game through six games. Further, I expect the shooting to drop-off considerably as the team hits the road yet again. Since the first two games of this series, the team is shooting below its season average in terms of effective field goal percentage and the pace has slowed to 92.63 possessions, which would be the slowest in the NBA in the regular season. 

The game should be played slow with limited transition opportunities and rebounding magnified. Without Minnesota finding easy pathways to the free throw line given the likely whistle in Game 7, I’m going to side with the T’Wolves team total under in Game 7. 

If Minnesota advances out of this series, it will be through its defense, not its offense. 

PICK: Timberwolves Team Total UNDER 96.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.