Timberwolves vs Thunder Prediction and Odds (Count on Thunder as Home Underdog)

Minnesota has beaten Oklahoma City twice already this season and aims to make it a third when the 34-29 Timberwolves take on the 20-42 Thunder tonight at 8:00 PM EST.

The Timberwolves are surging, winning 10 of their previous 14 and covering the spread in nine of those. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, has won two of three and is 5-2-1 against the spread (ATS) over their past eight.

The Thunder played Minnesota tough in the first matchup, losing by eight, but got decimated by 30 in the second one. Which Oklahoma City team will show up and where does the value lie?

Let's take a gander at the odds, courtesy of WynnBET:

Timberwolves vs Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Minnesota -9.5 (-110)
• Oklahoma City +9.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Minnesota: -425
• Oklahoma City: +325

Total:

• 230.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Timberwolves vs Thunder Prediction and Pick

Anthony Edwards will miss tonight's contest and his absence looms large against a Thunder squad that, despite their overall record, is the second-best spread bet in the entire league this season. Oklahoma City is 37-21-4 ATS on the year, behind only Memphis, and is quietly laying a strong foundation with Josh Giddey's emergence to pair with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The Thunder are downright terrible offensively. They're 30th in the NBA in offensive rating over their last 15 games. There's only 30 teams, so a ranking of 30th is pretty, pretty, pretty bad.

But, they've turned into a menace on the defensive end, ranking 3rd in defensive rating in that same stretch. Now of course, because we can't have nice things, Giddey is hurt and will likely miss tonight. But Shai recently returned from injury and picked up right where he left off. In the four games he's played since returning, the stud point guard is averaging 33.5 points, 6.3 assists, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.75 steals per game. That'll play.

When these teams met in January in Oklahoma City, the Timberwolves were favored by five. They won by 30, but the Thunder have only improved and now Edwards is out. So why is the line up to 9.5? I think this is an overreaction to the Minnesota win and am backing the Thunder to move to 37-20-4 ATS as an underdog.

Pick: Thunder +9.5

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.