The Kansas City Chiefs smashed the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7 and then got to relax on their bye week. Andy Reid’s team is 5-2, but so are Mike Vrabel’s Tennessee Titans.
Yet, the Chiefs are perceived to be on a collision course with the Buffalo Bills and the Titans are an afterthought in the AFC. We should remember that the Titans were the No. 1 seed in the conference last year.
Vegas doesn’t think that Tennessee stands a chance against Patrick Mahomes, so let’s take a look at the odds.
Titans vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total
Kansas City and Tennessee Betting Trends
- Kansas City is 3-4 ATS
- Tennessee is 5-2 ATS
- Kansas City is 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a favorites of 7 or more points
- Patrick Mahomes is 17-7 SU in primetime games and 13-10-1 ATS
Titans vs. Chiefs Prediction and Pick
It's Derrick Henry season. In Week 8, Henry ran wild on the Texans with 32 carries for 219 yards and two touchdowns. It feels like the narrative that Henry is washed was being pushed this year, but he looks like his old self right now.
The Titans needed it too with Ryan Tannehill out and Malik Willis starting his first game. Willis was not asked to do anything, he finished the game 6-for-10 passing for 55 yards and a pick. He only ran it five times for 12 yards. Tennessee will need Tannehill back to have a chance in Week 9, because that act will not work against Kansas City.
Last year, these two teams met in Week 7 and that was the height of Kansas City’s struggles. The Titans won 27-3 dropping the Chiefs to 3-4. Henry ran it 29 times for 86 yards, it was actually AJ Brown who carried Tennessee, with eight catches for 133 yards and a touchdown, he is now doing that in an Philadelphia Eagles uniform.
The Titans offense is worse this year, but the defense addressed its No. 1 flaw from a season ago. They struggled to get off the field on third down for much of the year, but turned it around to end the season.
That has carried over into 2022 where their opponents are only converting on 25.58% of their third downs. That is the best in the league by 4%. Even when the Bills scored 41 points, they were 5-for-13 on third down. If there is a roadmap to a Titans cover or even a win, it will have to include a lot of third down stops.
Andy Reid is coming off a bye week which is terrifying for his opponents. Reid is 20-3 in his career coming off the bye. That is not the only trend that will be tested this week. The Chiefs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of seven or more points, but also Patrick Mahomes is 17-7 straight up in primetime games and 13-10-1. I’m not sure which trend will hold up, but I will lean on Reid’s record out of the bye week.
The Chiefs put it on San Francisco the last time we saw them. It looks like they’ve figured out this offense without Tyreek Hill and I’m certain that they saw what Buffalo did to Tennessee in Week 2 and want to make a statement.
KC reloaded at receiver once they traded away Hill, the Titans don’t have any weapons. They have done a terrible job replacing AJ Brown, and could even be without Tannehill for the second straight week. I’m going with the Chiefs because I don't think there is any way that Tennessee can score enough to stay in this game.
Pick: Chiefs -10.5 (-112)
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change