Top College Basketball Picks Today (Best Bets for Belmont vs. Chattanooga, Auburn vs. USC, Iona vs. New Mexico)
By Ben Heisler
As winter break continues across college campuses across the country, another limited slate of games take place this Sunday. However, following the somewhat marquee matchup of Stanford and No. 7 Texas in Austin earlier this afternoon, a few more top 25 teams get set to tip off later on, highlighted by No. 19 Auburn on the road in Southern California against USC.
A little bit later on, two top 25 teams in the Lone Star State are in action, as No. 21 TCU hosts Mississippi Valley State as a 33.5-point favorite, followed by another Pac 12 vs. Big 12 matchup between Washington State and No. 11 Baylor at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, rather than in Waco.
Other notable matchups to keep an eye on include a Tennessee bragging rights matchup between Belmont and Chattanooga, as well as Rick Pitino's Iona Gaels heading out to New Mexico to face the Lobos. Curious to know New Mexico's head coach? How about none other than Richard Pitino, Rick's son!
Here are my three favorite plays on today's college basketball slate, along with the best available odds for each matchup below:
Belmont vs. Chattanooga Odds, Prediction and PIck
Vegas is expecting a relatively high scoring affair in this Rocky Top state battle, but I like the under at 151.5.
Both offensives are operating extremely efficiently this year, with the Bruins of Belmont ranked 92nd in the country, and Chattanooga coming in at 58th. Both teams also rank in the top 41 in KenPom adjusted efficiency on offense.
However, the Mocs' pace is snail-slow, averaging just under 19 seconds per possession which puts them in the bottom 50 in college basketball.
The Bruins also have not put up the same numbers away from Nashville compared to when they're in their home gym. So far, the Bruins are 3-1 at home, but just 1-3 on the road, along with 2-1 in neutral site games. They rank fifth in the country in 3-point percentage, but could see some inconsistencies in their long range game away from home.
If this game were at Belmont, I'd feel a little better about seeing some more points, but look for the Mocs to do what they can to make the Bruins a bit more uncomfortable from deep.
Auburn vs. USC Odds, Prediction and Pick
I like USC on the moneyline here with the Tigers headed out west.
The Trojans have had some tough games to start their season, but held tough in their previous to games vs. two very good teams; losing in overtime to Tennessee, and falling by 5 to Wisconsin during Thanksgiving Week.
Since then, they've won four straight, and finish up a four-game home stand with the Tigers, who have yet to play a true road game this season, and stay out west to take on Washington on Wednesday.
Auburn is terrific defensively ; ranked top 15 in the country in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency, but that's nothing for the Trojans, given that they've played two elite defensive teams in the Volunteers and Badgers already this year. The Tigers have also been somewhat lucky, compared to KenPom's Luck ratings this year, and have been on the positive side of many close games.
I don't think they'll be as lucky with their first meaningful road game of the season.
Iona vs. New Mexico Odds, Prediction and Pick
It's the Pitino Bowl out in Albuquerque, as the Lobos and Richard Pitino host his dad, Rick Pitino, and the Iona Gaels this Sunday evening.
The younger Pitino has his Lobos off to a 10-0 start and playing excellent offensive basketball. However, their defense shouldn't be overlooked either, holding an elite St. Mary's team to just 65 points in a true road game back on November 30th.
Iona is the better team by 20 points in the latest KenPom rankings, but there's a few areas where New Mexico has the advantage, besides being at home.
The Lobos have a significantly better offense; ranked 47th in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 69th for the Lobos. They also are terrific at getting to the free throw line; ranking 11th in the country in free throw attempts / field goal attempts, compared to just 347th for Iona. Especially on the road, that could be a major concern if the Gaels can't get a handful of foul shots.
Iona's defense comes in 53rd, compared to New Mexico at 116th, but as the Lobos showed earlier this year, their defense comes to play against high level competition. With Richard looking to one-up dad, I think they can pull it off at The Pit tonight.
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