Top College Basketball Picks and Predictions Today (Best Bets for UNC-Alabama, Florida-WVU, Iowa State-UConn)
By Ben Heisler
"Feast Week" wraps up this Sunday with several prime time matchups across the country, but the bulk of the big name games are in the two Phil Knight tournaments out in Portland.
Early on, No. 1 North Carolina takes on No. 18 Alabama with both teams coming off their first losses of the season. That game is part of the Phil Knight "Invitational" and takes place at the Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Portland with the Crimson Tide as a short favorite.
Later on tonight, the Phil Knight "Legacy" matchup goes down between the Florida Gators and West Virginia Mountaineers, and the evening wraps with another "Invitational" game at the Moda Center between 5-0 Iowa State and 7-0 UConn.
Here are my three favorite bets for the Phil Knight Sunday slate of games:
Top College Basketball Picks and Predictions Today
- Alabama -1.5 (-110) vs. UNC
- Florida ML (-115) vs. WVU
- Iowa State +6 (-110) vs. UConn
North Carolina vs. Alabama Odds, Prediction and Pick
Despite the No. 1 next to the Tar Heels' name, this is far from the top team in the country as of now.
North Carolina comes off their first loss of the season in Portland to Iowa State, and have not looked close to the defensive stoppers they were when they ran all the way to the National Championship game vs. KU a season ago.
Now, they take on an Alabama squad with a top 20 ranking in both KenPom adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and can also take away effective field goals inside as the No. 1 team in opponent 2-point field goal percentage defense. The Tar Heels also aren't hitting 3's this year, making for a tough matchup in Portland this afternoon.
Florida vs. West Virginia Odds, Prediction and Pick
This is a super evenly matched game, but I'll give the edge to the Gators for how they take care of the basketball against a Mountaineers team that thrives off turnovers.
Florida ranks 24th in basketball in turnover percentage, while West Virginia comes in at ninth overall. The Gators also outrank the Mountaineers in offensive efficiency as well as from beyond the arc.
Colin Castelton is a huge weapon, and can use his 6-11 frame to muscle up inside, where he'll have a size advantage over the rest of West Virginia.
I also like Florida's ability to close it out at the free throw line, shooting 76.2% at the charity stripe, compared to just 72.8% for West Virginia.
Iowa State vs. UConn Odds, Prediction and Pick
My first inclination was to take the higher ranked Huskies, especially with the Cyclones coming off a big upset over UNC on Friday, but the line has shifted towards Iowa State, and I want to get in early before it continues even further.
UConn has very impressive metrics this season, ranking top 10 in adjusted defense, and 14th in adjusted defense, and they Huskies have been terrific in limiting quality shots all season with an opponent effective field goal percentage of just 41.9%.
But Iowa State won't be afraid of it. The Cyclones play slow under head coach T.J. Otzelberger, and defend in a very similar fashion as UConn, coming in 21st in the country in adjusted defense and No. 2 in the country in turnover percentage.
If the Cyclones get to the free throw line, they'll have a strong advantage over UConn, shooting 76.5% from the line compared to the Huskies at 72.8%.
In what I expect to be a low scoring affair, 6-points is a ton to cover, given that both teams aren't that far apart.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.