Top College Basketball Picks Today: Best Bets for Maryland vs. Wisconsin, James Madison vs. Virginia
By Reed Wallach
Tuesday is a loaded college hoops slate with conference play starting in earnest in conferences like the Big Ten and a pair of neutral court showdowns at Madison Square Garden for the Jimmy V Classic.
There are plenty of bets to choose from on such a big serving of games but here are three that caught my eye for the Tuesdsay night slate, focusing on Wisconsin vs. Maryland in a Big Ten showdown as well as James Madison and Virginia matching up in a rivalry game.
YTD Record: 26-22-1, +1.64U, all my plays are tracked on betstamp @rw33
Saint Joseph's vs. Temple Prediction and Pick
This is a swift change in sentiment for Temple, who is favored by double digits for the second time this season. The prior game was their season opener against Wagner, a 76-73 loss. While the Hawks are just 3-4 on the season this is the second time they have been double digit underdogs this season, the only other time was against Houston in their opening game. Sensing a theme here?
Temple's offense isn't built to blow teams out. They play at the 296th slowest pace on offense and are outside the top 200 nationally in offensive rebounding rate and turnover percentage. Saint Joe's plays fast on offense and generates a ton of free throw opportunities, the 14th highest free throw rate in the country, but they play at the 327th slowest rate on defense.
If the Hawks are going to force long possessions from a Temple team that is playing well over it's head on offense -- they are ranked 79th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric, but 192 in ShotQuality's adjusted offensive metric -- this game can stay tight with limited possessions.
This is a rivalry game between two Philly schools, so while Temple would love to get some revenge for last year, this is number is inflated and I'll play it against it with a team that can get some easy points at the free throw line.
PICK: St. Joseph's +11
James Madison vs. Virginia Prediction and Pick
I'm sure UVA head coach Tony Bennett would love nothing more than some sweet revenge against James Madison after losing last season, and this UVA team should be able to hold off the Dukes and their up-tempo attack. JMU plays at a top 20 pace this season, according to KenPom, the polar opposite of Virginia's pack line defense and ball control offense that is bottom 10 nationally.
Both teams are shooting the cover off the ball, each over 41% on the season and fifth and sixth in the country, respectively. However, I think we see the Dukes struggle to keep pace with the Woos on offense. James Madison is turning the ball over on 20% of their possessions, 235th in the country, which could spell trouble against the active hands of the Virginia defense (73rd in turnover rate).
PICK: UNDER 133.5
Maryland vs. Wisconsin Prediction and Pick
I'm going to fade Maryland off their big win against Illinois. The team has faced legitimate competition thus far, but the team hasn't been challenged on the road just yet. Maryland beat a listless Louisville team and now get a battle tested Wisconsin team in league play.
The Badgers are strong defending the interior with their length at the rim and Maryland has thrived off a top 10 two-point percentage this season, hitting on nearly 60% of their two-point tries. Meanwhile, the Badgers have struggled around the rim, shooting 41% on two's this season, which is bottom 20 in the country.
Maryland looks to be a contender in the first year under Kevin Willard but the 8-0 start may be the result of some good fortune, their 8-0 record is more like a 6-2 one based on ShotQuality's adjusted record. Wisconsin is the perfect team to make life hell for a Maryland in a true road setting. They protect the ball (33rd in turnover rate), play at a slow pace (335th in adjusted tempo) and are due for positive regression in terms of shots at the rim.
Both teams are off emotional victories for different reasons, but in a game being lined as a near coin flip, I'll take the home team.
PICK: Wisconsin -1.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.