Top MLB Picks and Predictions for April (Trust Marlins In San Francisco, Pitchers In Kansas City)
Opening season in the MLB continues today with a jam-packed Saturday.
BetSided's Ben Heisler and Matt De Saro have you covered with their favorite picks in the Majors tonight, with all odds via WynnBET:
Guardians vs. Royals Prediction and Pick
Mid-afternoon games are a prime spot to target unders as the shadows will likely play a role in the batters' eye midway through the game. However, it's also a reasonable bet for these two teams who are likely to have plenty of ups and downs with their offense this year.
Fangraphs has a metric called Offensive Runs Above Average (OFF) that measure a team's combined value both at the plate and on the basepaths. Last season, Cleveland came in at -43.9, 18th in baseball and the Royals fell in at -64.9; good for 23rd.
While Kansas City's lineup should improve this year with the emergence of top prospect Bobby Witt Jr. in the fold every day, it's still a team that despite finishing ninth in batting average, finished 24th in total runs scored.
As for the pitching, Zach Plesac saw his K/9 and BB/9 go way up from a season ago, but still held his own vs. KC in three starts, striking out 13 Royals batters in 17 innings and pitching to a 4.24 ERA.
Between the shadows and two starters who look to keep the ball down, I think we'll see another low scoring affair this afternoon. -- Ben Heisler
LEAN: UNDER 8.5 Runs (+100)
Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE
Marlins vs. Giants Prediction and Pick
I have to give credit to the Marlins for almost ruining the Giants' home opener yesterday. They get another shot tonight but face off against Rodon in his debut for San Francisco. Rodon was phenomenal last year, finishing with a 13-5 record in 24 starts. His health was an issue down the stretch, but he looks healthy now and gets the nod for Game 2 of the series. The matchup couldn't be much better. Despite their five-run season openers, the Marlins are not exactly a scary offense. Especially against left-handed pitching. The Marlins finished second-worst in the MLB last year with a .227 BA against southpaw pitchers while striking out 466 times.
The only thing about Rodon that worries me is the short leash he is on. After closing the season on the IL, the Giants will want to ease him back into action. Especially now that he is in a new system in San Fran. This will leave the Giants bullpen with a lot of innings to eat. They did not look great last night. Giants’ relievers coughed up four runs off four hits in four innings yesterday including two home runs. It’s a small sample size but starting the year with a 9.00 ERA in your bullpen is bad news.
Therefore, I am going to be betting the over for this game. I think Rodon is lights out, but he won’t pitch deep into this game. And I have a bad feeling that the Giants bullpen has another bad game tonight. -- Matt De Saro
Pick: OVER 7.5 (-110) / Lean: Marlins +135
Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE