Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Astros, White Sox Solid Favorites to Back, Plus One Total to Play)
There's a short slate in Major League Baseball on Thursday, but that doesn't mean there aren't matchups to target in the betting markets.
Peter Dewey and Josh Yourish broke down a few of their favorite plays to make for Sept. 15, with odds from FanDuel:
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros Odds, Prediction and Pick
Lance McCullers has been really good since returning from injury, but there were some concerning signs in his first few starts. The curveball was not playing up nearly as well as it typically would and he was walking as many guys as he struck out. That led to a 1.69 ERA after three starts, but a 4.18 Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP.
I almost always target a pitcher like that to fade because I am expecting regression. However, I don’t think that is going to come for McCullers anymore. At least not in a dramatic fashion.
McCullers has his curveball working really well and that is always the key for him as it is his most thrown pitch. It has a -5 run value and is in the top 3% of curveball spin rates in the league. He has a 40% whiff rate on the pitch and opponents are slugging .152 against it.
I fully expect his success to continue and feel good about taking the Astros on the run line especially against James Kaprielian who has allowed 13 runs to score in his last 8.1 innings on the mound.
Pick: Astros -1.5 (-145) -- Josh Yourish
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Odds, Prediction and Pick
Drey Jameson was great in Double-A this season, posting a 2.41 ERA, but he got rocked after getting called up to Triple-A, going 5-12 with a 6.95 ERA in 22 games (21 starts).
That doesn’t give me much confidence in him, especially against a Juan Soto led offense, but there may be a better bet than simply taking the Padres.
Sean Manaea has been downright awful since the start of August, compiling a 8.90 ERA, with the Padres going 2-5 in those games.
I simply can’t trust him to keep the Padres in this game, especially since he’s allowed six or more runs in three of his last six starts. Instead, let’s root for some runs in this poor pitching matchup and back the OVER.
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Odds, Prediction and Pick
After a tough start to the 2022 season, Lance Lynn is back to his old self as of late.
Since the start of August, Lynn has made eight starts, posting a 1.81 ERA and leading the White Sox to a 5-3 record in those games (he’s 5-1 in his six decisions).
I simply don’t know what we’re going to get from Hunter Gaddis, who had a tough matchup in his debut against Houston.
The White Sox have been hot at the plate, ranking No. 2 in OPS over the last 15 days. If they keep that up, Gaddis is going to be in trouble trying to keep up with Lynn.