Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Bet Guardians As Underdog)
Every team is in action on Friday, sending us into the weekend with several great matchups. The Yankees and Blue Jays battle in a tough divisional matchup, the Astros will look to extend their lead in the AL West and the Dodgers are looking to hold serve against the Guardians.
The BetSided crew of Joe Summers and Josh Yourish has you covered with their favorite picks for the games today, via WynnBET Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick
If you squinted from a distance, you'd think Cleveland was a World Series favorite and not Los Angeles. They're 13-3 over their last 16 while the Dodgers are 9-7 over the same span.
On a normal day, the Dodgers are rightly priced as -260 favorites. But this is no normal day. Clayton Kershaw is working up to a full pitch count and looked like a guy coming off injury last week. Cleveland is 12th in OPS against left-handed pitchers over the last three weeks and strike out at the lowest rate in MLB. With wind blowing out to center field, if Kershaw makes any mistakes then the Guardians will make him pay.
The Dodgers can certainly make Zach Plesac pay for his mistakes too, but he's making fewer of them lately. After struggling with command all year, he's issued zero walks in his last three starts.
But more importantly, something may be wrong with the Los Angeles lineup. They're seventh in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks after leading the league most of the year. Things are getting worse too, as they've averaged two runs per game in their previous five.
I think the Dodgers should be favored, but not by this much. Cleveland has resounding advantages in the bullpen and defensively. Their lineup is hitting better between the two and with Kershaw still shaking off rust, we can't say for certain how large Los Angeles' advantage is on the mound.
Los Angeles is 6-9 over their last 15 as a favorite while the Guardians covered the run line in four of their last five as an underdog.
I'll take a shot on Cleveland to pull off the upset in a huge test for their ability to keep their strong play going. -- Joe Summers
Pick: Guardians ML (+237)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.
Twins vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick
Bumgarner is winless in three starts in June, and while his ERA is still a solid 3.50, his FIP has jumped to 5.03 and he has been buoyed by a good defense in Arizona. The Diamondbacks rank fourth in Team DEF according to Fangraphs.
DEF stands for Defensive Runs Above Average and is a value metric that calculates a player's defensive value, but also includes positional adjustment. By that metric, Arizona has been one of the best defensive teams in the league relative to the average defender at each position. Minnesota ranks 20th in this metric with a -5.4 compared to Arizona’s 11.5.
That number from the Diamondbacks is surprising considering they are 28th in the league in fielding percentage and allowed two unearned runs last time Bumgarner pitched.
Defense might be the difference because Smeltzer also has a much higher Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) 4.90 than his ERA of 2.38. That means that both pitchers have been helped by their defense to make them look better than they have actually pitched.
Neither pitcher has good indicators and the defensive statistics seem all over the place, they aren't convincing enough for me to ride with the Diamondbacks even though DEF rates them so highly.
The safe play to me is to take the over and hope that both pitchers start to give up the runs that their statistics say they should. – Josh Yourish
Pick: Over 9 (-115)
Follow all Josh’s bets HERE