Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Expect Runs In Phillies-Dodgers, Upset in Guardians-Twins)
Let’s start the weekend off right with a full slate of baseball games.
The BetSided crew of Reed Wallach and Joe Summers has you covered with their favorite picks for the games today, via WynnBET Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick
Kershaw has turned back the clock in 2022, posting a 4-0 record with a 1.80 ERA. However, this matchup may not suit him well with the bats of the Phillies, who are top 5 in batting average against lefties this season. The likes of Nick Castellanos has Philly humming at the dish and may be able to push this total over the number.
On the other side, Gibson's numbers look strong on the surface, but this could be a good spot for him to get tagged based on his shaky control and poor underlying metrics. Los Angeles is the best team in baseball at drawing walks, nearly 11% of at bats, and Gibson walking over 3 batters per 9 innings and Gibson's FIP is nearly 1 run higher than his ERA (3.62 vs. 2.94).
After a 16 run affair on Thursday, I'm going back to the well and expecting another high scoring matchup in the second of four meetings between the two teams.
LEAN: OVER 8 – Reed Wallach
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!
Guardians vs. Twins Prediction and Pick
Aaron Civale has been, in a word, terrible. But his 5.02 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) does imply he's due for some regression from his 9.45 ERA. And he's got a winnable matchup today against a Twins offense that is really struggling.
Minnesota has been shut out twice in their last three games and are averaging a paltry 1.67 runs per game over their previous six. Carlos Correa is on the IL and several other key players are battling nagging injuries, so the Twins won't be at full strength either.
On the other end, Cleveland's lineup has snapped out of a cold slump and is streaking. They're averaging 5.73 runs per game over their last 11 and should continue their strong play against Sonny Gray.
The 32-year-old righty struggles to go deep into games and his 4.76 FIP means he's fortunate to have a 3.48 ERA. Gray ranks in the 15th percentile in barrel percentage and 20th percentile in walk rate, so he's ripe for the picking.
For me, this is an easy call. Civale is due for positive regression while Gray is due for negative regression. Cleveland's lineup is mashing and the Twins is struggling. Getting the Guardians at +145 is a classic buy-low spot on Civale, as we should see improvement from him moving forward.
I'll take a shot on the Guardians at plus odds. Civale, like Bitcoin, is crashing. Will you join me in buying low?
Pick: Guardians +145
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.