Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Focus on AL East, NL West, and Battle of Scherzer vs. Fried in Atlanta)
It's the final week of the MLB regular season before the All-Star break, and with 10 games on the slate for Monday, there's plenty of plays on the board to choose from.
Our team at BetSided goes through every MLB game on the schedule with full previews, picks and analysis to help get your bets ready to go.
With nine of them set to take place later tonight, here are our top MLB picks and predictions for Monday, July 11 with all odds via WynnBET Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Prediction and Pick
Run Line:
- Red Sox -1.5 (+130) | Rays +1.5 (-160)
Moneyline:
- Red Sox -103 | Rays -107
Total:
- 7.5 (OVER -120 | UNDER +100)
Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello made his MLB debut on Wednesday against the Rays, and suffice to say, it didn't go according to plan.
Bello had three walks compared to two strikeouts. The Rays had scored four runs on Bello in just four innings; throwing 79 pitches to get through 21 batters in that span. The Rays hit .306 in that game with a .944 OPS and three extra-base hits.
Bello also got roughed up his second time through the lineup. The Rays went 2-for-8 with one run scored the first time around. However, the second time though, Tampa Bay went 3-for-7 with three runs scored and two walks.
There is no way I’m going to bet on Bello. I am, however, interested in seeing how many runs the Rays score in their second time seeing the rookie.
Pick: Rays ML -107
Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Prediction and Pick
Run Line:
- Mets +1.5 (-195) | Braves -1.5 (+160)
Moneyline:
- Mets +116 | Braves -126
Total:
- 7.5 (OVER +100 | UNDER -120)
Max Fried, the Braves' first-time All Star has an impressive ERA, an even better FIP, has only allowed 6 home runs and has 100 strikeouts to 17 walks in 107.1 innings. The Braves have won each of his last nine starts and they are 13-4 when he takes the mound this year.
As for the veteran Scherzer, he made his return from injury on July 5 and dominated Cincinnati. He went six scoreless with 11 punchouts. While a smaller sample size due to injury, but the 37-year-old has frankly been better than Fried this year. Scherzer has a better weighted on base average, a better hard hit rate, a better strikeout rate, and a better expected ERA. He is also in the top 10% of the league in each of those categories.
Scherzer's velocity is down from around 95 MPH at his peak to 93.7 MPH this year, and he's posted the lowest whiff rate since 2017. 2017 was also the last time his run value on his fastball was a -3. While still a positive pitch, compared to a -29 in 2018 or a -18 a year ago, it doesn’t hold up quite the same.
However, if you think back to 2017, all Scherzer did with that -3 run value fastball was win the Cy Young. I'm taking the better pitcher at plus-odds.
PICK: Mets ML +120
Follow all Josh’s bets HERE
Padres vs. Rockies Odds, Prediction and Pick
Run Line:
- Padres -1.5 (+105) | Rockies +1.5 (-125)
Moneyline:
- Padres -142 | Rockies +132
Total:
- 12 (OVER -115 | UNDER -105)
Manaea has struggled against the Rockies over his career as Colorado hitters are .340 against him over his career and the team destroys lefty pitching (second in batting average). Unfortunately, I can't justify Jose Ureña at this price against a playoff-bound roster.
Ureña has pitched for both the Brewers and Rockies this season, shining in his first start with Colorado, allowing one earned run over 6.2 innings against the Dodgers. However, Ureña posted a FIP of 4.99 in that game, meaning that he benefitted from some help in the field.
Urena has struggled with controlling the home runs over his career, posting a home run to fly ball rate of 12.6%. San Diego is top 10 in OPS on the road this season, benefitting from playing outside of the pitcher friendly PETCO Park.
I think they tag Ureña and get the job done tonight.
PICK: Padres ML (-142)
You can track all of Reed's plays on Betstamp HERE!