Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet on Astros Offense and Cardinals vs. Giants)

Getting ready for the weekend? Need some baseball bets on a Friday night with an open page of pending wagers? Don't worry, we got you covered here at BetSided.

The duo Reed Wallach and Joe Summers shared their top picks for the Friday, May 6th Major League Baseball slate with all odds via WynnBET:

Tigers vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

I'm all for fading Brieske against a surging Astros lineup that mashes against righties. Brieske has a 3.60 ERA but his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is at 7.00, meaning he has been bailed out by the fielding behind him.

Houston's offense is starting to round into form of late and is in a great spot to tag Brieske. The Astros are the best team in baseball in weighted runs created against righties, meaning they have the highest run scoring rate normalized for ball park factors.

Brieske has been playing with fire and has been struggling to find his punch out pitch, striking 5.4 batters while walking nearly 4 batters per 9 innings. I believe the Astros get to him early with their splits against righties.

LEAN: Astros Team Total OVER 4.5 (-120) -- Reed Wallach

Cardinals vs Giants Prediction and Pick

Alex Cobb has been extremely unlucky thus far in the 2022 campaign. He has a 5.40 ERA but just a 1.80 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), so we can expect some positive regression for him. The Giants have a bad defense, ranking 26th in MLB in total defensive runs saved, but that gap is ridiculous regardless.

Just check out Cobb's pitching profile from Baseball Savant and tell me this is a guy who should have a 5.40 ERA:

That's pretty darned good! And while the Cardinals are on a roll, I have no faith in their offense. Congratulations, you scored a bunch of runs on the Royals' league-worst bullpen. So what? St. Louis still ranks 24th in OPS against right-handed pitchers and have had the second-easiest strength of schedule, per TeamRankings.com.

So we can expect positive regression for Cobb and negative regression for the Cardinals. And that's before you even get to the concerning peripheral stats for today's starter, Jordan Hicks.

The 25-year-old flame thrower ranks in the 99th percentile in fastball velocity but in just the 7th percentile in barrel percentage and walk rate. Even though he throws incredibly hard, batters can still make hard contact and draw walks. San Francisco ranks ninth in walks per game so their patient approach should pay dividends.

I'm backing the Giants to snap their slump and pick up the home win. Cobb has been too good to keep losing and the Cardinals are punching above their weight.

Pick: Giants (-129) -- Joe Summers

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