Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Look To Home Underdogs on Saturday)
A Saturday filled with baseball is a good Saturday. We have a full, 15-game slate today and tons of games to bet on. The BetSided crew of Josh Yourish, Ben Heisler and Donnavan Smoot has you covered with their favorite picks for today’s schedule.
We’re making a pick on the battle of Pennsylvania, and backing two underdogs going against playoff teams. Let’s get into the picks.
Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick
Mitch Keller has dropped his ERA down to 4.55, but his 3-7 record is an indication of his early season struggles. Though, he continues to turn his season around with a fairly impressive July. Keller’s last three starts have all been quality ones and yet, the Pirates are only 1-2 in those outings.
The new sinker Keller debuted this season is the best pitch of his career by run value with a -6 run value. It is the type of pitch that can and probably is saving a career and has been his dominant pitch since he began throwing it.
The Pirates have lost five in a row beginning with Keller’s last start against Miami and are 2-8 in their past 10 games. It doesn’t seem that the team has the offense to win enough games now matter how well Keller pitches.
They have an identical OPS against left and right handed pitchers, so Ranger Suarez on the mound is no more or less concerning for the Pirate offense than anyone else. Pittsburgh is a bad team that is playing even worse, and Philly will take the series today. – Josh Yourish
Pick: Phillies ML -150
Follow all Josh’s bets HERE
Cardinals vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick
I like the Nationals as a sneaky home dog vs. the Cardinals this evening because this is a matchup where they should be able to score.
Dakota Hudson has had a tough season in St. Louis even though the stats don't look all that bad. He enters today with a 4.10 ERA, but his expected ERA over at Fangraphs is significantly higher at 5.45; implying he's been the beneficiary of good luck this year.
Perhaps even more concerning is Hudson's inability to get swings-and-misses. His strikeouts per nine are under 5, while his walk rate has soared to just under 4 per nine.
Meanwhile, Nationals right-hander Erick Fedde hasn't been much better with a 4.95 ERA and expected ERA just over 5. He hasn't been good, but then again, neither has Hudson.
With both teams expected to put runs on the board, I'll back the value with the Nationals between two evenly bad pitchers. – Ben Heisler
LEAN: Nationals ML +128
Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE
Dodgers vs. Rockies Prediction and Odds
Even though it’s the No. 1-seeded Los Angeles Dodgers coming into town with Clayton Kershaw on the mound, I like the Rockies to keep this one close. Kershaw comes off one of his poorest performances of the season against the Giants, allowing four runs in 4.1 innings. Kershaw also lost his previous start against the Rockies in Colorado, and that’s because the Rockies are a different team at home.
On the season, the Rockies have the best OPS in baseball when playing at home. They have the most runs at home – 36 above the second-place Reds – and are top 7 in homers. Colorado is elite at Coors Field. Also, the Rockies are one of the harder teams to strike out, ranking 6th in strikeout percentage.
With the Rockies’ success at home and Kershaw not at his best right now, the Rockies are certainly live to win this game. However, I’ll play it safe and take Colorado on the run line, especially since I can still get plus money. – Donnavan Smoot
Lean: Rockies +1.5 (+130)
You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.