Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Target Underdogs and Run Totals On Friday)

Detroit Tigers v Tampa Bay Rays
Detroit Tigers v Tampa Bay Rays / Julio Aguilar/GettyImages

Let’s start the weekend off right with a full slate of baseball games. Every team is in action on Friday and BetSided has you covered from every angle.

The BetSided crew of Reed Wallach, Joe Summers, Ben Heisler and Donnavan Smoothas you covered with their favorite picks for the games today, via WynnBET Sportsbook.

Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

I believe the Tigers should be considerable favorites in this matchup with an emerging star in Skubal on the bump. He is fanning over 10 batters per 9 innings while walking below 2, showing much better control in his second full season in the big leagues. Skubal's 2.50 ERA is legit as well, he has a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 2.07, highlighting that he can use some help from his teammates in the field.

It's also a massive plus for the lefty that he will be facing a poor Guardians offense. The team has the fourth worst batting average against lefties this season and will struggle with the control of Skubal that can generate swing and misses.

As for the Guardians starter Aaron Civale, it's been a rough start to the year. He has an ERA of 9.85 which is highlighted by his inability to avoid barrels, allowing more than 2 homers per 9 innings. He is far more erratic this season, walking nearly 3 batters per 9 innings, but I can't back him as a slight favorite even if the Tigers are struggling at the dish.

PICK: Tigers -103 -- Reed Wallach

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams have struggled offensively of late, with Arizona averaging 3.33 runs per game in their last nine and the Cubs ranking 26th in OPS against right-handed pitchers this month. In fact, seven consecutive games between these teams have hit the under, and I think today makes it eight straight.

Neither starting pitcher has been particularly effective, but Castellanos has the edge. He's in the 50th percentile in expected ERA while Hendricks ranks in the 20th. Hendricks has struggled to generate strikeouts and can surrender too many walks, which could be troublesome against a Diamondbacks lineup that averages the seventh-most walks per game in the league.

The Cubs have the bullpen advantage, but their offense has been so bad I don't think it matters. They're just 3-7 over their last 10 as a favorite and the under is 8-1-1 in those matchups.

Arizona, meanwhile, is 9-6 in their last 15 as an underdog and have value. I'll back the Diamondbacks and under despite a lackluster pitching matchup. The wind is blowing out to center field, but 11 runs is an overreaction to the weather. These lineups are not good, and we shouldn't overreact. Look for the Cubs to fall to 3-8 in their previous 11 when favored and push the under to 9-1-1 in that stretch.

PICK: DIAMONDBACKS ML (+123) and UNDER 11 (-110) -- Joe Summers

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

Nationals vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

I expect both pitchers to fare well tonight, leading me to head towards the under in this NL affair.

Lauer's 2022 season has been eye-opening for a variety of reasons.

His overall numbers are excellent: 3-1 with a 2.62 ERA through 34.2 innings. But what's really stood out are his strikeout numbers.

Through his career, Lauer averaged 8.79 strikeouts per nine innings; just under one punch out per inning. This year, he's up to 12.72 per nine; just under four more K's per nine!

The Nationals rank sixth-worst in baseball in offensive WAR at Fangraphs, and own the eighth-worst weighted on-base average (wOBA) vs. left-handers this season.

As for Fedde, walks have been his glaring weakness this season; averaging three walks for every four strikeouts this season. However, other than one blow-up start back in April, he's yet to allow more than three runs in more than two starts this year.

Between Lauer's excellence, and Fedde's likelihood to positively regress following one of his rougher starts, I like the under to hit tonight in Milwaukee.

LEAN: UNDER 8 (-110) -- Ben Heisler

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE

Padres vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

This game is going to come down to whether Sean Manaea will be able to give the Padres enough room for error. The Padres have lost four straight games in which Manaea started. He’s given up at least three earned runs in each of those starts, leaving the Padres to try and battle back. 

San Diego lost the first series these two teams played, even after winning the first game. I think history repeats itself and the Padres get Game 1 tonight. Manaea has been going deep into his starts and has been striking out batters. 

If the Padres can get on the board early and allow Manaea to play freely, I think they can cash in at this slight plus money price. 

LEAN: PADRES ML (+102) -- Donnavan Smoot

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.