Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Back Totals in Mets-Marlins, Angels-Astros, Plus the Underdog in Rays-Yankees
While everyone is zagging to bet every NFL game under the sun for the first Sunday of Week 1, today is a great day to continue to wager on baseball, especially with Vegas locked in on football today.
There's some terrific and valuable lines remaining on the board, so now's the day to jump on board.
Here are our team's top MLB picks and predictions for Sunday, September 11.
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Prediction and Pick
Taijuan Walker's play is very concerning as the Mets prepare for a NL Pennant run. After posting a 2.55 in the first half of the season, Walker has fallen off of a cliff, pitching to a 6.25 in eight starts since the All-Star game.
Ideally, Walker is getting a breath of fresh air against the Marlins, who are regularly scoring three or less, but I think it's time to hop off the trend. The team scored six runs in the series finale against the Phillies and has put up runs against the Mets this series, including six runs in the series opener against New York on Friday.
Meanwhile, the New York offense will look to pounce on a porous Marlins bullpen that is bottom 10 in ERA as a unit. While Jesús Luzardo is in fine form, the Mets are a fantastic team at drawing walks, top three in the big leagues. Luzardo walks nearly four batters per nine innings which can offset his strikeout talent (10 per 9).
If Luzardo is out of this one early, I expect the Mets offense to take over late. Instead of taking them on the moneyline, I'd rather look to the over considering Walker can't be trusted at this point. -- Reed Wallach
PICK: OVER 7 (-114)
You can find all of Reed's plays on Betstamp HERE!
Rays vs. Yankees Odds, Prediction and Pick
Domingo Germán makes the start for the Yankees today, but the starting pitching situation for Tampa Bay is a little more up in the air. They do not have a starter announced for today or for many of their upcoming games. They are unique in that way and very fluid with their staff, it is one of the things that has made them competitive in a small market.
So, let’s focus on Germán. He has a 3.27 ERA in his 55 innings he has pitched this year. He has been reliable since returning from injury, but his fielding independent pitching points to possible regression. His FIP is a full run more than his ERA and we have watched a lot of pitchers with a similar situation have a blow up start that makes those two numbers line up more.
Most of German’s advanced numbers are not encouraging either with his hard hit rate, expected slugging, and strikeout rate all well below league average.
The Rays have been playing better than the Yankees and I have a feeling they will touch up German today and eventually win the division. - Josh Yourish
PICK: Rays ML +110
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE
Angels vs. Astros Odds, Prediction and Pick
Left-hander Tucker Davidson's last start came against the Astros at home, and they took it to him; giving up seven earned runs in 6.1 innings; including two home runs.
So why trust him today?
In Davidson's three previous starts, he had looked pretty good despite way too many walks, allowing just five earned runs in 15 innings. When he's on, he's very difficult to hit, as opponents have the 5th-highest chase percentage vs. Davidson in September.
Meanwhile, Luis Garcia dominated these Angels his last time out, going seven innings of one run ball, striking out seven.
The Astros remain the best under bet in baseball, hitting at 62.1% on the year. The Angels, meanwhile, are seventh-best in the league; hitting unders at 53.5%. On a getaway day with nothing to play for on the Halos' side, I'll back the pitchers and fade the offenses. -- Ben Heisler
PICK: UNDER 8 (-108)