Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Brewers Stay Alive, Astros Win and One Total on Monday)
There are just a few days left in the 2022 MLB regular season, but there are playoff implications in a few matchups on Monday.
BetSided's team has picks for you in the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers matchups, as they both need wins for the playoff hopes. A win gets Philly in and eliminates Milwaukee.
Let's jump into the top picks for Monday, with odds from FanDuel and BetMGM:
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros Odds, Prediction and Pick
Aaron Nola comes in in in fine form, posting a 2.93 ERA over his last five starts while sporting the best big league walk rate per nine innings this season. However, this price is too big of a discount on the best team in the AL. Despite many flocking to bet the Phillies, who "need" the win, I think the value lies with the home team.
Houston is an elite offensive team that is top three in strikeout rate and walk rate. The Astros are elite at staying disciplined at the dish and will put the pressure on Nola to put balls into the strike zone. Despite having elite control metrics, I'm going to side with the offense that has a top five wRC+ to put runs on the scoreboard.
Meanwhile, Lance McCullers Jr. has been outstanding since missing the first part of the season, pitching to a 2.38 ERA through seven starts. The Phillies may have a formidable offense, top five in slugging percentage, but they also strikeout at a far higher rate (right around the MLB average), which should help McCullers work around the power of Philadelphia.
Give me the Astros as small home favorites.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds, Prediction and Pick
This game is Brewers or nothing for me, as Tommy Henry has struggled in 2022, especially over his last three outings.
The D-Backs youngster has allowed 17 runs, 21 hits, eight walks, and six homers over his last three starts, lasting just 13.0 combined innings in those games. Even though Milwaukee has struggled at times against lefties this season, I can’t trust Henry here.
Brandon Woodruff has been fantastic for the Brewers as of late, posting a 1.36 ERA over his last five starts. The Brewers are 4-1 in those games, and they are 18-8 overall in Woodruff’s 26 starts in 2022.
With a playoff spot on the line, back Woodruff and company to win and win big.
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Odds, Prediction and Pick
I have no interesting betting against the Dodgers when Tony Gonsolin gets the start, no matter how meaningless the game is. He has a stunning 16-1 record this season, and one of those wins came against the very Rockies team earlier this season.
The Rockies will look to Jose Ureña in this game, who has had better numbers on the road this season compared to at home, which is common amongst Rockies pitchers. His 4.40 ERA on the road this season still isn't great, but it's good enough to make me lean towards the UNDER in this NL West showdown.
Hopefully he and the Rockies bullpen can keep it together, and then leave the Los Angeles pitchers to do what they do and keep this a low-scoring affair.