Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Back the Bats in Cardinals-Phillies, Expect Early Runs in Padres-Mets)
Playoff baseball gives off a feeling similar to the first few days of the NCAA basketball tournament, when games tip off in the late morning and go all the way through the evening.
The next day, you get to get up, place more bets, and do it again.
This year's MLB postseason has an even more similar feeling to it because of the new bracket-style playoff that's created. With the wild card expanding by another team in both the American and National League, the top two teams in each league avoid the weekend wild card round while the final four make their way down to two on each side of the bracket.
BetSided's Josh Yourish broke down his betting picks for all of Friday's afternoon HERE, but we've put our heads together to come up with our favorites, both prop-wise and picks-wise for the start of the MLB postseason.
Here are the BetSided team's three favorite picks for the wild card slate today.
Top MLB Picks Today
- Shane Bieber OVER 5.5 Strikeouts
- Phillies vs. Cardinals OVER 7
- Padres vs. Mets YRFI (+134)
Shane Bieber OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Bieber's not the strikeout artist of years past, but getting plus-odds for an early start game against a team on the road is putting dollar signs into my eyes.
Tampa finished with the 12th highest strikeout rate in baseball this year (23.2%), and was seventh-worst against right-handed pitching, punching out 24% of their at-bats.
Meanwhile, the Rays' lineup is loaded with left-handers and Bieber's K/9 went up to nearly 10 per game against them. At home this year, his strikeout rate vs. left handers was 10.19/9 innings, and while his ERA was better away from home, he limited opponents to just a .223 batting average against at home.
He's made just one postseason start, going 4.2 innings vs. the Yankees back in 2020, when he gave up seven earned runs. I think he more than makes up for it in a very local projected total game to start the wild card round. - Ben Heisler
Phillies vs. Cardinals OVER 6.5
Cardinals Game 1 starter, José Quintana, finished the season with a 2.93 ERA after allowing just three runs across six starts to close out the year. He hasn’t allowed more than one run in an outing since August.
One problem.
Philly’s lineup has the fourth best OPS against left-handers this season and they enter the postseason looking dangerous.
Don't get me wrong, Zack Wheeler is a very good pitcher, certainly a better option than any for St. Louis, but if there is anything I trust about these teams it is their lineups. St. Louis scored the fifth most runs this year and Philadelphia the seventh.
With uncertainty on the mound, I’ll go towards the over at 6.5. - Josh Yourish
Padres vs. Mets YRFI
Taking a yes-run-first-inning on a total set at six runs? Ben, what are you smoking?
It's definitely a risk, but let's take a closer look at both these pitchers.
Scherzer's coming off a tough start in that road sweep to the Atlanta Braves; giving up two home runs on four earned runs, nine hits and just four strikeouts in 5.2 innings. He's had some extended rest to get right, but if he's not healthy, I could see the Padres jumping on him early.
Meanwhile, Darvish has been excellent all season, but if there's a time to attack him, it's early in the game. He has a 5.40 ERA in the first inning this season with a Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP of 5.01.
The Mets are much better vs. right-handers than left-handers this year, and will be fired up to make a statement in their Wild Card Round that they honestly shouldn't even be playing in. - Ben Heisler
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.