Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Fade Gerrit Cole in Boston, Back White Sox, Orioles on Thursday)
We have some crucial weekend series coming up in Major League Baseball, as the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox headline Thursday's action.
The BetSided team of Peter Dewey and Josh Yourish have been breaking down each game today, and here are some of their top picks, with odds via WynnBET:
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox Prediction and Pick
There is no way I’m betting against Dylan Cease while facing a Detroit team that is 29th in OPS and dead last in baseball in runs scored this season.
Cease has been terrific, ranking in the 90th percentile or better in several key advanced categories, per Baseball Savant. His profile may be the best in baseball:
Beau Brieske has shown that he can pitch well at times, but his last three starts haven’t been great, as he’s allowed 12 runs over 14.2 innings. The Tigers are just 4-9 in his starts in 2022.
The White Sox are far from a great team this season, but they have been a great team to bet on in Cease’s starts, going 12-4.
Lean: White Sox -1.5 (-120) -- Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick
The Dallas Keuchel revival experiment in Arizona has not gone to plan so far. In his two starts, his ERA has actually gone up from 7.88 at the end of his time in Chicago to 8.27 now. Keuchel is in the bottom 2% of the league in Weighted On Base Average at .404 and his cutter that used to be such an effective third pitch in his arsenal is now allowing a .946 Slugging Percentage.
Frankly, Austin Gomer has not been much better. The fourth year starter has a 6.53 ERA in 13 starts this year. His 4.89 Fielding Independent Pitching is a bit of a saving grace when looking at his numbers, but that is still a bad sign even for a pitcher who makes half of his starts at Coors Field.
Keuchel’s last four starts have all cleared the total of 9.5 and seven of his 10 starts this year have seen 10 or more runs. On the other side, nine of Gomber’s 13 starts has yielded 10 or more runs.
They say everything is bigger in Texas, and with Dallas and Austin going at it, the total should be bigger too.
Pick: Over 9.5 (+100) -- Josh Yourish
Follow all Josh’s bets HERE
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction and Pick
I think this is a spot to fade New York on the road, as Gerrit Cole has really struggled in his career against Boston.
Cole was rocked the last few times he faced Boston in 2021, and he has a career ERA of 4.00 in 11 starts against the Red Sox.
I’m not 100% sold on Josh Winckowski shutting down the Yankees, but Boston has been great over the last month-plus, and is 21-11 on the run line as an underdog this year.
Take the Red Sox to cover in what should be a fun series between two of the best teams in baseball.
Lean: Red Sox +1.5 (-120) -- Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Pick
Both of these starters haven’t been great this season, but Jordan Lyles comes off one of his better outings of the season back on July 2. The righty threw 6.1 innings of one-run ball against the Minnesota Twins, striking out seven.
Michael Lorenzen, on the other hand, has really struggled over his last three outings, giving up 17 runs (16 earned) over 11 innings of work.
Yikes.
The Angels have been losing games at a wild pace, and while I don’t mind the OVER in this game, I also think the Orioles pull off the win.
The Angels have won just one start by Lorenzen since the start of June, and Lyles simply comes into this game in far better form.
Lean(s): OVER 8.5 (-120) | Orioles ML (-110) -- Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.