Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Fade Josh Donaldson, Trust Zack Wheeler in Sunday's Playoff Action)
By Peter Dewey
Could we see the ALCS and NLCS come to an end on Sunday?
It's possible if the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros win, and the BetSided team has shared picks for both games in today's MLB Best Bets.
So, why don't I switch things up and go with some of my favorite prop bets for our top picks? I'm fading the Yankees offense again on Sunday, and I love Phillies ace Zack Wheeler in his outs recorded prop.
Let's dive into the picks:
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds, Prediction and Pick
Zack Wheeler OVER 16.5 Outs Recorded
For some reason, oddsmakers keep hanging these low outs recorded props on Wheeler, who has gotten 19, 18 and 21 outs through his first three postseason starts.
Rain could play a factor here if the game is paused in the middle of his outing, but I’m willing to take that risk when all we need is for Wheeler to get through 5.2 innings for this bet to hit.
Rob Thomson said he’s pretty confident Game 5 will not start unless there is a 3-4 hour window to play. Phillies don’t want to lose Zack Wheeler. Padres don’t want to lose Yu Darvish.
— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) October 23, 2022
The Phillies are going to trust their ace in this game, especially since their bullpen has been their weakness in the 2022 season.
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees Odds, Prediction and Pick
Yankees Team Total UNDER 7.5 Hits
I have given this prop out all postseason for the Yankees and it continues to hit.
It really doesn’t matter who is on the mound for the Astros (Lance McCullers gets the start), New York can’t clear six hits against them and it didn’t do it once in five games against the Cleveland Guardians.
Inept would be a kind way to characterize the Yankees' offense in the ALCS. Current numbers through 6th inning of Game 3:
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 22, 2022
- BA: .120 (10 for 83)
- OBP: .198
- SLG: .229
- Runs: 4
- Strikeouts: 36
- Walks: 7
- Total bases: 18 (same number Jeremy Peña and Chas McCormick combined)
Elimination game or not, 7.5 hits is far too many for New York to clear in Game 4.
Josh Donaldson UNDER 0.5 Hits
Since his two-hit game in Game 1 of the ALDS, Josh Donaldson has been ice cold at the plate for the Yankees.
He is just 3-for-23 over his last seven games (.130) and he’s struck out 13 times over that stretch. The fact that Donaldson isn’t putting the ball in play should help with this prop, and the Yankees as a team don’t have more than six hits in a single game this postseason.
Donaldson has been dropped in the order and I wouldn't be shocked if he falls further in Game 4 after another tough showing on Saturday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.