Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Fade Mets, Trust Rays on Monday, May 2)
Looking to bet on Major League Baseball on Monday?
The BetSided crew of Reed Wallach and Joe Summers has you covered with their picks for these three games, via WynnBET Sportsbook.
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Prediction and Pick
Max Fried has been dynamite so far this season, posting a 3.00 ERA, but an even better FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 2.25. He is allowing less than one walk and hit per inning and has walked just one batter in 24 innings thus far.
He has had success against the Mets in the past, posting a 2.78 ERA in 11 starts with 10.6 strikeouts per 9 innings rate. While the New York offense has been fantastic to start the season with the best on-base percentage in baseball, the team has been below average against southpaws. The team's OBP drops 21 points against lefties and their slugging percentage falls below average.
Based on Fried's dominance over the Mets in the past and the team's drop off against the left handed starter, I think we see a low scoring affair at Citi Field. While it's not all that predictive, I like fading the Mets team total after the team plated 10 runs on Sunday Night Baseball.
LEAN: Mets Team Total UNDER 3 (+105) -- Reed Wallach
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!
Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction and Pick
The Royals were clobbered by the Yankees in their most recent series. They were outscored 21-6 over the three-game sweep and were in position to win yesterday before their bullpen imploded and gave up two runs on no hits to blow a lead in the 8th inning. Kansas City has lost eight of 10 but still find themselves competitive in the division due to a similarly poor start from the rest of the AL Central.
St. Louis is 2-5 in their last eight but have dominated the Royals recently, beating their cross-state rivals in seven of their last nine contests.
Steven Matz should have success against a Kansas City lineup that's really struggled against left-handers. The Royals rank 28th in OPS against southpaws and will also struggle against a Cardinals bullpen that boasts the 6th-best ERA in the league.
The Cardinals offense, meanwhile, has been inconsistent. In their most recent series against the Diamondbacks, for example, they scored eight and seven runs in two of the games, but just two and zero in the other two. Greinke has been strong to start the year and while Kansas City's bullpen is one of the worst in the sport, their elite defense should help keep the score down.
Both pitchers' are 3-1 to the under in their four starts this year. I expect that trend to continue in a low-scoring contest between inconsistent-at-best offenses. It's a low total, but don't be afraid. These lineups aren't scaring anyone.
Pick: Under 7 (+105) -- Joe Summers
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics Prediction and Pick
The A's offense continues to be a symbol of ineptitude. They're averaging just 2.8 runs per home game and have scored more than three just twice in their last 11 contests overall. Rays' starter Drew Rasmussen struck out nine batters in his most recent outing and should have similar success against an Oakland lineup that averages the third-most strikeouts per game in the the league.
Tampa Bay's offense, meanwhile, has been great on the road. They rank eighth in OPS and seventh in runs per game away from home and should be able to score on A's starter Daulton Jeffries.
Jeffries came unraveled in his last start against the Giants, giving up five runs in just four innings, and his 4.28 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) suggests his 3.26 ERA is a bit of a mirage.
Oakland has proven their offense cannot be trusted under any circumstances right now. I believe in the Rays' lineup led by superstar Wander Franco, and Tampa Bay's bullpen is much better as well.
I'm taking the Rays to give the A's their sixth home loss in their last seven games behind another dominant performance from Rasmussen.
Pick: Rays -1.5 (+115) -- Joe Summers