Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Fade Yankees, Trust Padres, Astros on Tuesday)
Not sure who to bet in Major League Baseball on Tuesday?
The BetSided team of Joe Summers, Peter Dewey and Reed Wallach has you covered with picks and predictions for every baseball game tonight. Let's get into some of their top ones, with all odds via WynnBET:
Nw York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Prediction and Pick
This is a low total, and rightfully so, but I can’t believe oddsmakers are still backing the Yankees so heavily after their atrocious performance at the plate last weekend.
New York struggled to score against the Orioles’ awful pitching staff, and I don’t expect much to change in this game. The Yankees simply can’t put the ball in play enough, striking out an average of 9.2 times per game.
Gerrit Cole has not been good in his first two starts of the year, as he carries a 5.59 ERA into this game. While this may be a spot for him to get back on track, I don’t expect many runs to be scored in this game regardless, hence the total at 7.5.
There’s value in backing the Tigers on the run line at +110, as there’s a chance these two teams fail to score enough runs to truly run away with this game.
Lean: Tigers +1.5 (+110) -- Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction and Pick
There's nothing to lead me to believe that the Reds can compete with a formidable ball club like the Padres. The home team is top 10 in on-base percentage so far this season and that holds up against left handed pitching, the team is 11th in OBP vs. southpaws.
Now, they get Reiver Sanmartin, who has pitched 18.3 innings in his big league career, and has struggled to date, allowing seven runs on 18 hits.
I expect the Padres put runs on the board in bunches on Tuesday night. I don't have much interest in backing them as large favorites despite Musgrove rolling early on, posting a 1.42 ERA through 2 starts and yet to walk a batter, but would rather look at the team total over.
WynnBET has the Padres TT at four shaded towards the over at -115, but that seems too cheap. I think we'll an outburst from the home team at the plate against a poor left handed starter and even worse bullpen, eighth worst ERA as a unit this season.
LEAN: Padres TT OVER 4 -- Reed Wallach
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros Prediction and Pick
Mike Trout will likely miss tonight's contest after getting hit on the hand by a wayward pitch a couple of games ago. He didn't play last night ether, and the Angels offense missed him. Now, they have to take on an impressive pitcher in Framber Valdez with a history of strong starts in the early stages of a season.
Last season, Valdez had a quality start in six of his first seven outings and has allowed just four hits in his first two starts of this year.
Valdez doesn't strike out a ton of batters and walks too many, but does a tremendous job of limiting hard contact. He's in the 96th percentile in 2022 in expected slugging percentage, so Los Angeles hitters will need to be patient. It's unfortunate, then, that the Angels rank 27th in strikeouts per game and 18th in walks per game.
On the other side of things, the Astros are salivating to feast on Sandoval today. He was dreadful in both outings against Houston last year, surrendering four runs in two innings in his first start and four more runs in 4.2 innings in his second. Los Angeles lost them both, and his penchant for walking batters can bite him against an Astros offense that's ninth in walks per game.
Valdez went 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA against the Angels last season, including shutting them out over seven innings the last time he faced them, and I expect another solid performance today.
Los Angeles has the 26th-ranked bullpen ERA in 2022 while Houston's is 11th. With Patrick Sandoval's history against the Astros, the Angels will need to rely on a poor bullpen much earlier than they'd like to in this one. Houston should roll.
Pick: Astros -1.5 (+127) -- Joe Summers
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.