Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Mariners and Orioles Upsets, Two Favorites to Trust on Monday)
The NBA and NHL playoffs are both on an off day, which means we're all breaking out the lumber to bet on some baseball. Right?
If you are looking to make some MLB picks on Monday, May 16, BetSided's Peter Dewey, Ben Heisler, Joe Summers and Reed Wallach have you covered with their favorite picks, with all odds via WynnBET:
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Pick
I like the O's as a big dog on Monday night to get back in the win column.
Baltimore sends out right-hander Kyle Bradish, who fanned 11 St. Louis Cardinals over seven innings in his last start. St. Louis is the toughest team in baseball to strike out this season with a K-percentage of only 19.2%.
Meanwhile, after an outstanding start to the season, Yankees starter Luis Severino has come back to earth. After giving up only three runs in his first three starts (13 innings), Severino's allowed 10 runs in his last three, giving up a home run in every game. Over his past two starts, his home run-fly ball ratio is up near 20%, but only one of those games was in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.
With Severino looking for more consistency, as well as the Orioles playing to 9-7 at home this season (they're 5-14 on the road), there's a nice little opening with plenty of value to back the home dog tonight.
LEAN: Orioles ML +185 -- Ben Heisler
Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Prediction and Pick
I think the Marlins are the team to back in this matchup, as the Nationals are trotting out Aaron Sanchez (2-2, 7.58 ERA) in this game against Cody Poteet.
The Nationals’ struggles pitching can’t be denied, and that could be a problem against a Marlins team that is 12th in MLB in OPS.
The Marlins are also a solid team against the run line, as they entered Sunday’s action with an 18-15 record on the run line. The Nationals? They were just 14-21 entering Sunday, the second worst mark in MLB.
The Marlins may be struggling, but they should be able to get back on track against an unserious Nationals squad.
Lean: Marlins RL -1.5 (+100) -- Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Pick
Atlanta's offense may struggle against the flame-throwing Freddy Peralta. He is striking out nearly 12 batters per nine innings, showcasing immense power on the mound. He had a slow start to the season, but is starting to round into form, allowing five runs in his last four starts spanning 21.2 innings. He still has an ERA of 4.40 but a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 2.37, meaning there may be even more strong pitching on the way for the righty.
Not to mention, the Braves struggle with strikeouts, the team is being punched out on 25.9% of their at bats, the highest K% in all of baseball.
Atlanta starts Ian Anderson, who has taken a step back in 2022. He has an ERA of 4.28 while walking nearly five batters per nine innings. It also doesn't help that Anderson strikeout rate is dropping year over year, down from 11.4 in a very limited sample size in his rookie season to 8.7 in 2021 to now 6.6. While the Brewers offense leaves some to be desired, I can't trust Anderson to hold down the fort with his concerning metrics.
I like the Brewers to take care of business with a surging Peralta set to put together a big outing.
LEAN: Brewers ML (-140) -- Reed Wallach
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!
Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
The Blue Jays offense can't really be this bad, can it? This is a loaded lineup featuring Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer, and Teoscar Hernandez, for crying out loud. How are they 28th in OPS in May?
They need to get things figured out quickly, as Toronto is already 7.5 games behind the Yankees in the AL East and are trailing Tampa Bay too. But until they remember how to hit a baseball, they're going to continue to be an easy fade.
Over their last eight games as a favorite, the Blue Jays are 2-6. Kikuchi doesn't inspire much confidence today, either. He's in the fifth percentile in average exit velocity and walk rate and faces a Mariners lineup that's actually decent against left-handed pitchers. Seattle ranks 12th in OPS against southpaws and fifth in MLB in walks per game, so they can take advantage of Kikuchi's poor profile.
Chris Flexen has been solid except for his terrible last start. Prior to that debacle, he had a 2.60 ERA in his previous four outings. Seattle has the bullpen advantage as well and are 3-1 in their last four as an underdog, with the sole loss coming by one run.
I'll back the Mariners at +143. Toronto is overvalued based on high expectations entering the season that they haven't come close to meeting. They're 6-17 on the run line as a favorite and I'll keep fading them until their offense figures it out.
Pick: Mariners (+143) -- Joe Summers
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.