Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Marlins, Rays Solid Underdogs, Back Justin Verlander on Wednesday)
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Here at BetSided, we break down every MLB game every day, and today Peter Dewey and Joe Summers have a few picks that stand out above the rest. We're looking at a few solid starters to trust on Wednesday, which includes a pair of underdog picks.
Let's jump into the picks, with odds via WynnBET and consensus sportsbooks:
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros Odds, Prediction and Pick
- Run Line: Rangers +1.5 (+115) | Astros -1.5 (-140)
- Moneyline: Rangers: +255 | Astros: -290
- Total: 7.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
Just how good has Justin Verlander been lately?
Over his last seven starts, Verlander has allowed just four earned runs in 47.2 innings pitched (0.76 ERA) while striking out 46 batters. It’s hard to pitch much better than that, and that’s a major reason why the Astros are 7-0 in those starts and 16-4 in Verlander’s 20 outings this season.
The complete opposite can be said for Glenn Otto, as the Rangers are just 5-11 in his 16 starts and have lost his last eight starts. He has a tough 6.45 ERA over that stretch, which has taken the Rangers completely out of some games.
There’s no way I’m fading Verlander in this spot, so I’ll lay the juice on the run line with the Astros.
Lean: Astros -1.5 (-140) -- Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds, Prediction and Pick
There's quite a few reasons to favor the Rays in this matchup. At the least, they shouldn't be +135 underdogs.
Jeffrey Springs is stellar on the road, posting a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) under 2.44 in four of his last five starts away from home. Max Fried ranks third among all qualified pitchers with a 2.45 FIP, so Springs is on a sensational stretch.
Milwaukee struggles against left-handed pitchers, ranking 24th in OPS against them since the All-Star break. Thus, Springs should continue to find success.
Brewers' starter Brandon Woodruff is impressive as well, but he's had a command issue of late, walking 14 batters in his last 24.1 innings. That could cause problems against a Rays lineup averaging the eighth-most walks per game on the road with the 12th-best OPS against right-handed pitchers on the road since the break.
The entire Milwaukee clubhouse feels weird after trading Josh Hader at the trade deadline. It felt like the front office was throwing up the white flag despite leading the division, and it's taking time for the locker room to refocus.
I'll trust Springs' road excellence and take the plus money on Tampa Bay. Whatever's going on in Milwaukee, the organization needs to figure it out quickly.
Pick: Rays (+135) -- Joe Summers
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds, Prediction and Pick
- Run Line: Marlins: +1.5 (-185) | Phillies: -1.5 (+152)
- Moneyline: Marlins: +115 | Phillies: -125
- Total: 7.5 (Over +105/Under -125)
The Marlins have been terrible on offense lately, ranking dead last in OPS over the last 30 days and scoring just 57 runs over their last 25 games. That doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in this team, but Alcantara may be able to make up for everything.
After throwing a six-hit shutout against the Cincinnati Reds in his last outing, Alcantara has a 1.67 ERA over his last six starts and allowed more than two earned runs in only three of his 22 starts.
Even with the Phillies playing some of their best baseball of the year, I will always jump on a chance to back Alcantara as an underdog. If you don’t believe in the Marlins’ bullpen (3.89 ERA this season), then I don’t mind taking them in the first five innings as a safer play.
Lean: Marlins ML (+115) -- Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.