Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Padres, Braves and Cubs Among Teams to Trust on Tuesday)
Every Major League Baseball team is in action on Tuesday, which means we have a ton of games to break down and bet on.
The BetSided team of Peter Dewey, Ben Heisler, Iain McMillan and Josh Yourish has you covered with some of their favorite picks in baseball on Aug. 9. If you're looking to place some wagers, you may want to tail some of these predictions:
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners Odds, Prediction and Pick
- Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+135) | Mariners +1.5 (-155)
- Moneyline: Yankees -130 | Mariners +110
- Total: 7 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)
After holding down one of the top lineups in baseball over 6.2 innings in the Bronx Bandbox the last time out, I'm not expected many runs from either side in Seattle tonight.
Luis Castillo has been so reliable and consistent all season long; not allowing more than three earned runs in a start since June 22 when he gave up four in five innings vs. the L.A. Dodgers; his season-high. Over his last six starts since that outing, he's averaging just under seven innings per start with a 1.99 ERA and a K/9 of 10.84.
As for Gerrit Cole, despite the rough numbers in his previous two matchups (11 ER in 12 IP), he's set for some positive regression this time around. Despite an ERA of 9.00 and 7.50 in those two previous games, his expected Fielding Independent Pitching, or XFIP was way down at 2.68 and 1.59; implying he's had some bad luck in addition to his struggles.
After New York putting nine runs on the board Monday night, I expected Tuesday to be a low scoring game with two dominant starters on the mound in ideal pitching conditions.
PICK: UNDER 7 (-110) -- Ben Heisler
Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Odds, Prediction and Pick
- Run line: Giants +1.5 (-135) | Padres -1.5 (+115)
- Moneyline: Giants +155 | Padres -180
- Total: 7.5 (Over +105/Under -125)
Joe Musgrove is getting the start for the Padres, and that's enough to make me bet on them tonight.
He has been dominant against the Giants this season. He's had to starts against them, allowing only five hits and zero earned runs across a combined 14 innings.
He has certainly played a role in the Giants' struggles against right-handed pitchers this season. Their OPS drops from .747 against lefties, to .693 against righties.
Add on the fact the Giants rank 29th in bullpen ERA since July 1st at 5.37, and I have no fear backing San Diego to bounce back with a win tonight.
Pick: Padres -1.5 (+115) -- Iain MacMillan
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Odds, Prediction and Pick
- Run Line: Braves -1.5 (+120) | Red Sox +1.5 (-140)
- Moneyline: Braves: -140 | Red Sox: +120
- Total: 9 (Over -120/Under +100)
Rich Hill made his first start in over a month on Aug. 3 and only lasted three innings, allowing four runs on six hits in a loss to the Houston Astros.
Charlie Morton has been up and down this season, but this is a favorable matchup, as Boston ranks 25th in OPS over the last 30 days. Morton pitched 6.2 innings of shutout ball in a loss to the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies his last time out.
This is a pretty easy decision for me, as this Boston team is impossible to trust, especially with Hill on the mound. The Red Sox have a bottom-five bullpen in terms of ERA, so things won’t get much better after Hill is eventually chased.
The Braves are coming off a rough weekend, but this is a perfect “get right” spot.
Lean: Braves ML (-140) -- Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs Odds, Prediction and Pick
- Run Line: Nationals +1.5 (-125) | Cubs -1.5 (+105)
- Moneyline: Nationals +170 | Cubs -185
- Total: 7.5 (Over -105 / Under -115)
Paolo Espino has stretched out from a bullpen arm at the beginning of the year to about a five inning starter. The problem, is his ERA stretched out towards five too. When he made his first start on June 12, his ERA was 2.03 it now sits at 4.20 with a fielding independent pitching of 4.96. The Nationals are likely not too concerned about that, they simply need the 35-year-old to eat innings until they can run out the clock on the 2022 season.
An important stat with Espino on the mound is that the Cubs are 16-9 when they hit two or more home runs. He has allowed seven home runs in his last four starts and has had five starts this year where he gave up two home runs.
With Marcus Stroman on the mound and Espino’s propensity to give up the longball, the Cubs are a good bet tonight. Maybe somebody like Patrick Wisdom to hit a home run could be worth a look as well.
Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+105) -- Josh Yourish
Follow all Josh’s bets HERE