Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Padres Upset, Trust Marlins and Total in Mets-Dodgers on Thursday)
Looking to place some bets in Major League Baseball on Thursday night?
The BetSided team has you covered with picks and predictions for each game, but here are some of the top ones for the games on June 2, with all odds via WynnBET:
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction and Pick
These are the two best offenses in baseball by most advanced metrics, tops in wRC+ as well as on-base percentage. That's not all that is pacing these two, as they have fantastic pitching staffs as well.
However, I'm going to side with the two offenses on Thursday as I think we are getting a pair of vulnerable pitchers that each offense can jump on.
We'll start with the Mets and Taijuan Walker, who has continued to be suspect since a stellar first half of the season in 2021. He has a 2.83 ERA, but he has a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) that is a run higher. The main reason for concern comes on his strikeout rate, that is below five per 9 innings this season. With his inability to punch people out, batters like the ones the Dodgers have are going to be able to jump on him.
On the other side, Tony Gonsolin has pieced together a nice run of starts to start the year, yet to allow more than two runs in his nine starts, but his underlying metrics say that he can be primed for serious regression. Gonsolin's ERA is 1.80, but jumps to 3.19 when you account for his FIP. The Mets ability to string hits together are going to lead to a new season high earned runs mark.
I think the Mets make for a juicy underdog, but Walker gives me pause. I'm going to look to the over in this one as we see two NL titans go at it.
LEAN: OVER 8.5 -- Reed Wallach
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Pick
The Padres aren’t the only entity looking for a bounce-back performance in this game.
Brewers starter Adrian Houser needs a win after laboring through his worst start of the season on Saturday. He coughed up eight runs, five earned, in just four innings of work against the Cardinals. He only struck out one batter while allowing two home runs to leave the ballpark.
And while it was his worst appearance of the year, the writing was on the wall after a subpar May overall. After posting a 2.53 ERA in April, Houser finished May at 4.68. Because of this, the Brewers are 0-4 in his last four starts and Houser hasn’t won a game in almost a month. All of these things combined make me very hesitant to bet the Brew Crew in this game.
Sean Manaea will start for the Padres tonight, and despite a higher ERA, at least he’s been more consistent in 2022. Manaea is having a down year with a 4.02 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 56 innings. He is a near-lock to give up 2-3 runs per game while eating six or more innings. He failed to make six-inning just once and gave up more than three earned runs twice. I think his ERA is not as bad as it appears and his WHIP gives me hope that there is light at the end of his tunnel.
Pick: Padres ML +103 -- Matt De Saro
Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE!
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Prediction and Pick
The ace up the Marlins' sleeve tonight is right-hander Sandy Alcantara. He is the best arm on this staff right now and enters this game at 5-2 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Alcantara has been a beast over the last few weeks with three straight starts of eight innings or more. In these starts, spanning 25 innings, Alcantara allowed just two runs and three walks while striking out 26 batters.
He only had one bad game all year and I don’t see number two coming against the Giants today. San Francisco has a very good offense but is susceptible to good strikeout pitchers like Alcantara.
Not only do the Marlins have their best arm on the mound today, but the Giants also aren’t putting their best foot forward in this series opener. Alex Wood enters at 3-4 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 43 innings. His last three games have seen very different results than Alcantara’s with Woods’ giving up 11 runs in 13 innings. He’s a good strikeout guy too but is giving up way too many runs to below-average teams including the Reds and Rockies.
The Giants may be hot, but Woods is not. He is a liability today and I think will be the main reason why the Giants take an L in this matchup.
Pick: Marlins -130 ML
Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE.