Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Red Sox on Upset Alert, Three OVERs to Play on Wednesday)

St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado.
St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado. / Joe Puetz-USA TODAY Sports
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Looking to bet on the Major League Baseball action on Wednesday, Aug. 17?

The BetSided team has you covered, and they're expecting this to be a fun slate with multiple OVERs among some of our favorite picks for today's games.

Let's jump in.

Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Run Line: Rockies +1.5 (-130) | Cardinals -1.5 (+110)
  • Moneyline: Rockies: +177 | Cardinals: -195
  • Total: 7.0 (Over -120/Under +100)

I know both German Marquez and Jordan Montgomery are pitching well, but this total feels low.

Marquez is on a strong run, sure, but he ranks in the third percentile in hard hit percentage and 15th in expected batting average. Seriously, does this look like the MLB Statcast Pitching Profile of an elite starter?

Now consider that the Rockies have a terrible bullpen and that St. Louis ranks third in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks. When Marquez started against these Cardinals just last week, St. Louis put up eight runs by itself!

I expect Colorado to find some success today as well, as it has the 11th-best OPS against lefties since the All-Star break. Montgomery won't keep shutting out every opponent forever, so we might as well take advantage of an absurdly low total.

The over is 11-3 in the Rockies' last 14 games as road underdogs and 7-4 over Montgomery's past 11 starts. Trust these trends to continue as each lineup gets some runs on the board.

Pick: Over 7.0 (-120) -- Joe Summers


Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.


Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Run Line: Rays +1.5 (-175) | Yankees -1.5 (+145)
  • Moneyline: Rays: +130 | Yankees: -140
  • Total: 8 (Over -105/Under -115)

There is no way I’m backing the Yankees right now with so many players banged up, and the team struggling mightily on offense as of late with seven straight games with three or fewer runs scored. 

However, I don’t think the best bet is to blindly take the Rays, as Kluber has been downright awful as of late and is coming off a performance where he allowed seven earned runs to the Baltimore Orioles. 

Over his last eight starts (the start of July), Kluber has a 5.98 ERA and has given up 54 hits in 43.2 innings pitched. Yes, he’s been a bit unlucky, as his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) sits at 3.23 over this stretch, but he’s allowed four-plus runs in five of those eight outings. 

Although the Yankees’ bats have gone cold, I think this is a spot where we can back the OVER. German has lowered his ERA quickly after a poor start to the year, but he still has a FIP of 5.01. If the Yanks’ bats wake up at all, this game should easily go OVER. 

Lean: OVER 8 (-105) -- Peter Dewey


Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.


Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (+105) | Pirates +1.5 (-125)
  • Moneyline: Red Sox: -148 | Pirates: +138
  • Total: 8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Outside of a poor outing against the Milwaukee Brewers where he was tagged fro seven runs in 1.2 innings, Contreras has been solid in his eight other starts at the MLB level. 

In those games, Contreras has allowed just nine earned runs and the Pirates have gone 4-5 overall in his nine starts. 

Hill has allowed eight earned runs over his last two starts, and he pitched just seven combined innings in those games. 

Boston is the better team on paper, but I actually give Contreras the edge in this pitching matchup. Neither bullpen can be trusted, as they rank 27th (Pittsburgh) and 26th (Boston) in bullpen ERA this season. 

For that reason, I’ll trust Contreras and the Pirates in the first five innings

Lean: Pirates First Five Innings ML (+120) -- Peter Dewey


Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Run Line: Dodgers: -1.5 (-105) | Brewers: +1.5 (-115)
  • Moneyline: Dodgers: -175 | Brewers: +150
  • Total: 8 (Over -120/Under +100)

After a 4-0 Dodgers victory on Monday, the Brewers won 5-4 in extra innings to even this four game set. I think we see another high scoring affair on Wednesday as the regression monster continues to hunt down Tony Gonsolin.

The Dodgers right hander had a strong start to the year, and he still has a fantastic ERA of 2.24, but his FIP is more than a run higher indicated that he has been getting breaks in the field all year. Milwaukee's offense broke out on Tuesday and I can see them keeping the momentum going heading into Wednesday, namely Christian Yelich.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers offense should be in good shape against Eric Lauer of the Brewers. The lefty also has a FIP that is more than a run higher than his ERA and Los Angeles is one of the best in baseball against southpaws, sixth in on-base percentage.

It's not worth laying a heavy price on the Dodgers in what could be a chaotic back-and-forth game, so I'll take the over.

LEAN: OVER 8 (-120) -- Reed Wallach


Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!

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