Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Trust Padres, Fade Yankees at Fenway and One Total to Bet)

San Diego Padres right fielder Juan Soto.
San Diego Padres right fielder Juan Soto. / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

We have 17 games on tap in Major League Baseball on Tuesday, which means there are plenty of matchups with some value to bet on.

The BetSided team of Donnavan Smoot, Peter Dewey and Josh Yourish has you covered with picks for several games, including some of their top plays below:

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Odds, Prediction and Pick

Gerrit Cole has pitched well lately, but he’s traditionally struggled against the Red Sox in his career, posting a 4.14 ERA in 13 career starts. He also has struggled at Fenway Park, and he allowed five earned runs over six innings in his lone start there this season. 

Nick Pivetta has been one of the better starters for Boston in 2022, allowing three or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts. With the Yankees offense struggling in the second half, I think there’s value in backing Pivetta over Cole early on. 

New York is just 19th in OPS over the last 15 days while Boston ranks sixth, so don’t be surprised if the Red Sox have an early lead in this one. That being said, their 25th ranked bullpen concerns me, so let’s just stick to a first five innings bet.

San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Odds, Prediction and Pick

The run line odds for this matchup pose no value, unless you’re betting on the Padres to cover. Seattle is 19-11 ATS as the home underdog, while the Padres are 17-23 ATS as road favorites. San Diego is one of the worst run line teams in the league, so I won’t even look its way on the run line. 

However, the Padres on the moneyline is a different story. Despite a 17-15 SU record as road underdogs, I like them tonight because of Yu Darvish. The Padres have won his last three starts, and he’s due for some positive regression. 

If Darvish goes his normal 6-to-7 innings with decent stats, I trust the Padres to continue to rally around him

Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Odds, Prediction and Pick

Jacob deGrom is quite simply the best pitcher on planet earth and reclaims that title every time he is healthy enough to take the mound. He has made seven starts this season, pitched just 43.1 innings and is already worth 1.9 wins above replacement. That is absurd. He has a 1.66 ERA, but his fielding independent pitching tells us that he’s been slightly better than that this year. His FIP is 1.39 and his strikeout rate is 41.4%. League average is 22%. 

deGrom already has 63 strikeouts to just four walks and the Mets are 5-2 in his starts, he is 5-1 on the year. The Mets have scored three runs total in the two losses with him on the mound.

New York is a massive favorite tonight because of deGrom and there is absolutely no way I am willing to bet against the Mets. I don’t think that the Cubs will score a single run tonight, so the most value is on the under in this games especially if you can get it at seven because five of deGrom’s starts have gone under seven, one would’ve been a push at that number and one went over because the Mets won 10-0. 

Pick: Under 7.0 (-120) -- Josh Yourish

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE