Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Trust Padres, Guardians and One Total Bet on Monday)
We're entering the third week of the Major League Baseball season, and there are plenty of games to bet on Monday, April 18.
The BetSided team of Joe Summers, Ben Heisler and Reed Wallach have you covered with picks and predictions for every baseball game tonight. Let's get into some of their top ones, with all odds via WynnBET:
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets Prediction and Pick
Tylor Megill has been a massive development for the Mets, throwing 10.1 innings of shut out ball to start the season. While he showed promise in his rookie campaign in 2021, if Megill can become a formidable rotation piece, that softens the blow of the Jacob deGrom injury for the first half of the season.
However, I can't get to a total at a juiced under. Megill is going to get touched up sooner or later and the Giants have a strong lineup that is top 10 in slugging percentage. Further, the team is sending out Alex Cobb to start, who will struggle against what is becoming an elite Mets group of hitters.
New York is posting the second best on-base percentage in baseball and have a plethora of options in the lineup, including Francisco Lindor (.273 batting average, 7 RBI) and a rejuvenated Jeff McNeil, who is hitting .344 to start the year.
Cobb allowed 2 runs in his first start with the team across 5 innings, I still believe he is ripe for regression after a year-plus of outperforming his expected runs allowed. His career ERA is pushing 4.00 and I think the elite Mets bats will get to him.
Ultimately, this total is just too low with two pitchers I think are in line for a bit of a price correction in the betting market.
LEAN: OVER 7 -- Reed Wallach
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Prediction and Pick
Shane Bieber faces left-handed veteran Dallas Keuchel today as Chicago has dealt with some injuries to their rotation. While Bieber has not been the superb ace of the past in his first two starts of the season, I'll still back him as a slight favorite at home.
Last year, he was dominant against a very good White Sox lineup; going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four starts, striking out an average of eight hitters each time. For whatever reason, he has their number, despite some of his struggles from a season ago.
Cleveland needs their ace to start going deeper in games, and the plan from manager Terry Francona is to get him to that point over time. Bieber has thrown less than 80 pitches in his first two starts, but appears to be getting more stretched out with the season underway.
As for Chicago, if they can get another five innings and 3 or less earned runs out of Keuchel again, that's a win in their book. The 34-year old lefty struggled mightily last season with a WHIP of over 1.5, losing his spot in the rotation late in the year.
Cleveland's offense has been elite in the early going, and they also have the better pitcher on the hill. They may not be the better team, but this matchup suits them well and I like them to win as small favorites at home.
LEAN: Guardians moneyline (-108) -- Ben Heisler
Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE.
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Prediction and Pick
Cincinnati's offense has been among the very worst in baseball. The Reds are dead last in on-base percentage, second-to-last in batting average and slugging percentage, and haven't scored more than three runs in five straight games.
It's unfortunate then, that they get to take on Manaea today, who has been simply brilliant. When it rains, it pours, I guess. Dating back to the end of last season, Manaea has allowed two or fewer runs in four straight starts. While the Padres' bullpen has struggled, their new ace should last deep enough against a pathetic Reds lineup to give those arms a break.
Lodolo has a ton of potential, as evidenced by his 38% strikeout rate in the minor leagues, but whew, does my man ever need to get his command under control. San Diego ranks sixth in the MLB in walks per game and should get plenty of free passes from the volatile youngster today.
The Reds have lost every game of their six-game losing streak by multiple runs and I don't see them turning things around against Manaea.
I'll be backing the Padres on the run line, but I also love the over on Manaea's strikeouts prop. It's set at 6.5 (+120) and with the Reds' ranking 26th in strikeouts per game, I think the Padres' starter is in great position to hit the over.
Pick: Padres -1.5 (+115) and Sean Manaea Over 6.5 K's (+120) -- Joe Summers
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.