Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Trust Shohei Ohtani, Orioles and One Total on Wednesday)
There are several aces on the mound on Wednesday, and the BetSided team is backing some, and fading another, with their top picks for the action on May 18.
Let's break down today's picks, with all odds via WynnBET Sportsbook:
Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Prediction and Pick
Zack Greinke has been consistent in his return to the organization that drafted him, relying on a strong defense while preventing walks at an elite level. He's in the 97th percentile in walk rate, but just the sixth percentile in expected batting average, so he may be a bit lucky to have a 3.52 ERA thus far.
It's fortunate, then, that he's facing the White Sox today. Chicago is 28th in OPS against right-handed pitchers on the season, and Greinke limited them to three runs in six innings just last month. They're averaging just 2.6 runs per game over their last five as the under has hit in each game.
But the Royals' offense stinks too. They're 26th in OPS against righty's and face one with elite stuff in Lucas Giolito today. He ranks in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate and just limited the Guardians to one run in seven innings. Cleveland leads MLB in OPS against right-handed pitchers, so Kansas City is certainly a step-down in competition.
With struggling offenses against more-than-capable starters, I'm inclined to take the under.
The under is 13-4-1 in Chicago's last 18 and 10-4 in Kansas City's last 14 at home. It's hit in each of the first three games of this series and I expect more of the same today. Back the under and revel in each pathetic at-bat from these inept lineups.
Pick: Under 8.0 (-115) -- Joe Summers
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Pick
Cole continues to be priced as a premiere ace, but he simply hasn't been this season. He is posting a strikeout to walk rate of 3.83, down from 5.53 and 5.93 in his two prior seasons with the Yanks. While he still has a shiny ERA of 2.95, his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.41hints that he is getting bailed out in the field.
The Orioles will counter with Jordan Lyles, who is pitching better in his first season with the ball club. He'll need to continue to generate ground ball contact, up five percent this season from last per FanGraphs, against a power hitting club like the Yankees, but we have seen a more consistent Lyles in 2022, who has a 4.38 ERA and a FIP of 4.42.
I don't have a feel for the total, but I am itching to fade Cole as he continues to get priced like a generational pitcher, so I'll take the Orioles at the plus money run line in case they lose another barnburner against a Yankees team that continues to find ways to win.
LEAN: Orioles +1.5 (+125) -- Reed Wallach
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers Prediction and Pick
The Rangers have been able to put a hurt on the Angels in this series. They've won both games as underdogs, but would have covered even as the favorite. However, all good things must come to an end.
The Angels have Shohei Ohtani on the mound today. Ohtani is 3-2 with a 2.78 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He's been pitching fantastic this season. The Angels get quality starts out of Ohtani, with him going at least five innings several times. He's had double-digit strikeout games twice this season, and I'm predicting tonight will be his third.
The Rangers are still a below average offense in MLB. These last two games have been fun, but I doubt they sweep the Angels -- even at home.
Lean: Angels -1.5 (+110) -- Donnavan Smoot
You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.