Top NBA Picks and Predictions for March 7 (Trust Mavericks, Nuggets, Knicks and More on Monday)

Looking to make some bets in the NBA on Monday?

Yours truly has you covered with predictions for seven games in The Association tonight, including my favorite pick in the Dallas Mavericks-Utah Jazz game.

Let's break them all down, with odds via WynnBET Sportsbook:

Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction and Pick

The Lakers have been solid as road dogs this season, going 9-8 against the spread, but they’re facing a Spurs team that is 9-5 ATS when favored at home in the 2021-22 campaign. 

Despite that, I’m going to trust LeBron and company to stay hot in San Antonio. The Spurs have covered just twice in their last seven games, and they are 27th in the NBA in defensive rating over that stretch. 

The Lakers hadn’t been playing well prior to the win over the Warriors, but we may see James try to take over more games down the stretch of this season to guarantee Los Angeles a shot at the playoffs by way of the play-in tournament. Prior to the New Orleans Pelicans’ loss on Sunday, the Lakers were just a game up on them for the No. 9 seed. 

San Antonio has been solid at home, but if the Spurs continue to struggle on defense, they’re going to be tough to trust against anyone. 

Lean: Lakers +2.5 (-110)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.

Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Prediction and Pick

I broke down this game on this morning’s Bet & Breakfast podcast, and I really love the Mavs as slight favorites at home.

Since the start of 2022, the Mavericks are an impressive 22-7, and they’ve consistently been a top five defense for the majority of the 2021-22 season. They currently sit in sixth in the NBA in defensive rating, but it’s their offense that has been impressive to me lately. 

Dallas plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, but it has the No. 4 offensive rating over its last 10 games, showing just how efficient this team has been. While the Jazz are No. 1 in the NBA in this metric, they are going to have some tired legs on the second night of a back-to-back. 

Utah is just 4-5 against the spread in that spot this season, so I love Dallas laying just 1.5 points at home. 

Lean: Mavericks -1.5 (-110)

New York Knicks vs. Sacramento Kings Prediction and Pick

I’ve been out on betting on the Knicks for some time now, but I think tonight may be a time to get back on the train against the Kings. 

Sacramento has gone 6-7 against the spread as a home favorite, and it comes in at No. 28 in the NBA in defensive rating this season. That should help the Knicks, who have struggled offensively for most of the 2021-22 campaign, as they’ll need to get RJ Barrett and Julius Randle going early and often. 

New York has been solid in back-to-backs this season, covering the spread in five of their eight games so far, and I think they can do it again tonight. 

The Kings are going to need a high-scoring game to win, as New York’s offense will likely struggle to keep up, but the Knicks play at such a slow pace that I think they’ll be able to hang around. 

Sacramento is as inconsistent as they come, winning a game by 21 and then losing by 30 last week. I’ll take the Knicks and the points on Monday. 

Lean: Knicks +3.5 (-110)

Houston Rockets vs. Miami Heat Prediction and Pick

The Rockets are the second worst team in the NBA against the spread in back-to-backs, but I’m not sure if I want to lay this many points with Miami on Monday. 

Instead, I’m going to look at the total at 226.5. 

Houston has the worst defensive rating in the NBA, while the Heat are fifth in that same category. These are also two of the best OVER teams in the league, as Miami is 38-27 while the Rockets are 35-28-1 on overs this season. 

Houston has cleared this number in seven of its last 10 games, while the Heat have done so in only two of their last 15. 

That leads me to the under in this matchup, as I think the Heat can control the pace (they’re 29th in the league) against an uptempo Rockets team. 

Miami should make quick work of Houston, and I don’t expect the Rockets to be firing on all cylinders on a back-to-back. 

Lean: Heat-Rockets UNDER 226.5 (-110)

Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction and Pick

We’re going to get to see a bunch of the Warriors’ young guys tonight with Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins out, and it’s worth noting that Golden State beat the San Antonio Spurs one of the last times it went to this type of lineup. 

However, Denver is a whole different animal if Nikola Jokic and the rest of the starters suit up, and this could be viewed as a chance to gain more ground in the West for the Nuggets. 

The Warriors haven’t been playing well as of late, ranking 18th in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating over their last 10 games while the Nuggets are the best defensive team in the league over that stretch. 

I’m not going to overthink this one and back Denver, but make sure to follow the injury report before placing this bet, as Denver may decide to rest some guys after going to OT on Sunday. 

Lean: Nuggets -9 (-110)

Atlanta Hawks vs. Detroit Pistons Prediction and Pick

BetSided’s Ben Heisler is all over the Pistons in this one, as he mentioned on today’s episode of Bet & Breakfast, and I can’t say I blame him. 

The Pistons have been playing well as of late, covering in six of their last seven games and they have pulled off upsets against the Toronto Raptors, Charlotte Hornets, Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers over that stretch. 

The Hawks have struggled on the road this season, going just 10-21 against the spread, which is the worst mark in the NBA. 

Detroit is also playing solid defensively over this stretch, ranking 13th in defensive rating and 16th in offensive rating. I think the Pistons could be live to upset an underperforming Hawks team, and I’ll take them to cover the 7.5 points on Monday. 

Lean: Pistons +7.5 (-110)

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

I’m not going to touch the 14.5 points in this one, as it’s just too many to lay with Minnesota, but I also can’t trust Portland after the Jekyll and Hyde performance it has put on the past eight games. 

Instead, we’re going to look at the total in this game, as the Blazers are 29th in the NBA in defensive rating while the Wolves are 15th in defensive rating and seventh in offensive rating. 

Minnesota also plays at the third fastest pace in the NBA, so there should be plenty of possessions to go around on Monday. 

I like the OVER for a few reasons, starting with the fact that Minnesota is the best OVER team in the NBA this season at 41-24. Not only that, but the Wolves have gone over 233 points in five straight games. 

While Portland hasn’t been scoring enough to consistently get over this number, I think the Wolves pushing the pace will allow for a similar result as Saturday’s contest. That game had a whopping 256 combined points, so I think there is value at 233 in this matchup. 

Lean: Wolves-Blazers OVER 233 (-110)