Top NBA Picks and Predictions Today (Back Mavericks as Favorites, Heat, Thunder as Dogs on Thursday)
There are four games in the NBA on Thursday night, and we should have some fun action on the West Coast with the Golden State Warriors hosting the Miami Heat and the Memphis Grizzlies taking on the Sacramento Kings.
BetSided's Donnavan Smoot has a pick for each game on Thursday's slate, and you may want to tail him on at least a few plays.
Here's how to bet every every NBA game tonight:
Dallas Mavericks vs. Brooklyn Nets Odds, Prediction and Pick
Dallas has been on a roll – at least statistically –through the first three games of the season. The Mavericks have the best offensive rating in the league and the best net rating as well. Yet, they’re 1-2 heading into tonight’s matchup.
The Nets were able to take a lead over the Bucks in the second quarter of last night’s game, but then their defensive deficiencies kicked in. Brooklyn gave up 67 points in the second half and lost the game. That was against the Bucks, who are 24th in offensive rating.
Tonight, they’ll have to corral the Mavs and their No.1-rated offense. I don’t think Brooklyn has the defense to hold down the Mavericks, so I’ll roll with Dallas.
Unless Ben Simmons turns back into the All-NBA defender he was prior to his injury – which will be tough due to his recent flare up – Brooklyn won’t have a defensive answer for Luka.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Odds, Prediction and Pick
This matchup is really going to come down to who is playing and who isn’t. Kawhi Leonard and Josh Giddey have already been ruled out. Paul George – who missed the last game between these teams – and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander both have question marks surrounding their status for tonight.
Right now, with all the uncertainty, the only way to go is to take the Thunder on the spread. The Clippers were 1-2 ATS against the Thunder last season with the lone win coming in the final days of the regular season when tanking was the main priority for Oklahoma City.
Both of these teams are in the bottom half of the league in net rating, with both clubs posting negative ratings. The Clippers haven’t been the dominant force we’d thought they’d be to start the year – as injuries and integration of new pieces have slowed them up.
Nevertheless, it’s hard to trust them as 7-point favorites tonight – especially when they haven’t covered in three straight games.
Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Odds, Prediction and Pick
For the first time in five games this season, the Heat covered against the Portland Trail Blazers – winning on the road. They’ll continue their West Coast road trip tonight in Golden State, and the Heat are being undervalued as 7.5-point underdogs.
Golden State, outside of its first game against the Lakers, has failed to cover in three straight games. The Warriors, who normally are powered by their defense, are 24th in defense (114.7 DEF RTG). They haven’t been as stout on that side of the ball through the first week, and that gives Jimmy Butler and the Heat an opportunity to keep the game close.
Last year, Miami dominated in matchups like this one. The Heat were 5-0 ATS when they were at least 7.5-point underdogs. They were also 4-1 SU in these scenarios. Overall, Miami was 20-11 ATS as an underdog last season. With the Warriors looking a little slow coming out the gate, back Miami to keep this one competitive all the way through.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Sacramento Kings Odds, Prediction and Pick
Even with the total rising above 236, I still think the OVER is the way to go here. Memphis has hit the OVER in three straight games and hasn’t allowed fewer than 112 points in a game this season. The Grizzlies have given up at least 120 points in each of their last three games, and Sacramento is the perfect team to benefit from that style of play.
The Kings play at the fourth-fastest pace in the league. They like to get up and down the floor, and while the Grizzlies are 19th in pace, I don’t doubt Ja Morant would shy away from a track meet.
Sacramento has allowed at least 111 points in each of its games this season. With the Grizzlies ranking sixth in offense, the Kings will have a lot of scoring to make up for if their defense continues to have holes.
Tonight is simple. Back speed and points with Ja Morant going against De’Aaron Fox.
You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.